IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v7y1987i2p195-218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of the Portfolio of Sites to Characterize for Selecting a Nuclear Repository

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph L. Keeney

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Energy has selected three sites, from five nominated, to characterize for a nuclear repository to permanently dispose of nuclear waste. This decision was made without the benefit of an analysis of this “portfolio” problem. This paper analyzes different portfolios of three sites for simultaneous characterization and strategies for sequential characterization. Characterization of each site, which involves significant subsurface excavation, is now estimated to cost $1 billion. Mainly because of the high characterization costs, sequential characterization strategies are identified which are the equivalent of $1.7–2.0 billion less expensive than the selected DOE simultaneous characterization of the three sites. If three sites are simultaneously characterized, one portfolio is estimated to be the equivalent of $100–400 million better than the selected DOE portfolio. Because of these potential savings and several other complicating factors that may influence the relative desirability of characterization strategies, a thorough analysis of characterization strategies that addresses the likelihood of finding disqualifying conditions during site characterization, uncertainties, and dependencies in forecast site repository costs, preclosure and postclosure health and safety impacts, potential delays of both sequential and simultaneous characterization strategies, and the environmental, socioeconomic, and health and safety impacts of characterization activities is recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph L. Keeney, 1987. "An Analysis of the Portfolio of Sites to Characterize for Selecting a Nuclear Repository," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 195-218, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:2:p:195-218
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00982.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00982.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00982.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miley W. Merkhofer & Ralph L. Keeney, 1987. "A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternative Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 173-194, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robin Gregory & Sarah Lichtenstein, 1987. "A Review of the High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository Siting Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 219-223, June.
    2. Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1213-1232, July.
    3. Howard Kunreuther & Douglas Easterling & William Desvousges & Paul Slovic, 1990. "Public Attitudes Toward Siting a High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 469-484, December.
    4. Lawrence Phillips & Carlos Bana e Costa, 2007. "Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 51-68, October.
    5. Ola Svenson & Gunnar Karlsson, 1989. "Decision‐Making, Time Horizons, and Risk in the Very Long‐Term Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 385-399, September.
    6. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
    7. Rex Brown, 2005. "The Operation Was a Success but the Patient Died: Aider Priorities Influence Decision Aid Usefulness," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 511-521, December.
    8. Phillips, Lawrence D. & Bana e Costa, Carlos A., 2005. "Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ralph L. Keeney & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1994. "Managing Nuclear Waste from Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 107-130, February.
    10. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Margaret Watkins & Howard Gary & James P. Alexander & Linda Venczel & Denis, 2006. "Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1571-1580, December.
    2. George E. Apostolakis & Susan E. Pickett, 1998. "Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(5), pages 621-634, October.
    3. Rex Brown, 2005. "The Operation Was a Success but the Patient Died: Aider Priorities Influence Decision Aid Usefulness," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 511-521, December.
    4. Harry Otway & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1992. "Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management: Process, Context, and Pitfalls," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 83-93, March.
    5. Ralph L. Keeney, 1995. "Understanding Life‐Threatening Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(6), pages 627-637, December.
    6. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    7. Vincent T. Covello, 1987. "Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 131-139, June.
    8. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
    9. Thomas Ying‐Jeh Chen & Valerie Nicole Washington & Terje Aven & Seth David Guikema, 2020. "Review and Evaluation of the J100‐10 Risk and Resilience Management Standard for Water and Wastewater Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 608-623, March.
    10. Howard Kunreuther & Douglas Easterling & William Desvousges & Paul Slovic, 1990. "Public Attitudes Toward Siting a High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository in Nevada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 469-484, December.
    11. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
    12. Yousaf Ali & Zain Aslam & Hammad Sajid Dar & UbaidUllah Mumtaz, 2018. "A multi-criteria decision analysis of solid waste treatment options in Pakistan: Lahore City—a case in point," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 528-543, December.
    13. Ralph L. Keeney & Robin S. Gregory, 2005. "Selecting Attributes to Measure the Achievement of Objectives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
    14. Ola Svenson & Gunnar Karlsson, 1989. "Decision‐Making, Time Horizons, and Risk in the Very Long‐Term Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 385-399, September.
    15. Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1213-1232, July.
    16. Yuan Hong & George Apostolakis, 1993. "Conditional Influence Diagrams in Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(6), pages 625-636, December.
    17. Ralph L. Keeney & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1994. "Managing Nuclear Waste from Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 107-130, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:2:p:195-218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.