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Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction

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  • Jason G. Matheny

Abstract

In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction‐level asteroid impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason G. Matheny, 2007. "Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1335-1344, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:1335-1344
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles I. Jones, 2025. "How Much Should We Spend to Reduce AI's Existential Risk?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Seth D. Baum & Timothy M. Maher & Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2013. "Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 168-180, March.
    3. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2303-2312, November.
    4. Andrew J. Wright, 2019. "The End? Science, conservation, and social justice as necessary tools for preventing the otherwise inevitable human extinction?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(3), pages 281-285, September.
    5. Bruce Tonn & Dorian Stiefel, 2013. "Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1772-1787, October.
    6. Anthony Michael Barrett, 2017. "Value of Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Information: Cost-Effectiveness-Based Approach for GCR Reduction," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 187-203, September.
    7. Seth D. Baum, 2009. "Global Catastrophic Risks edited by Nick Bostrom & Milan Ćirković," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 155-156, January.
    8. Milan M. Ćirković, 2012. "Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1994-2004, November.
    9. Dilger, Alexander, 2020. "Wirtschaftsethische Überlegungen zum Klimawandel," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 5/2020, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    10. Yew-Kwang Ng, 2018. "Global Extinction and Animal Welfare: Two Priorities for Effective Altruism," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1808, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    11. Huttunen, Henri & Sivula, Oskari, 2023. "Moral adherence enhancement and the case of long-distance space missions," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Seth D. Baum, 2015. "Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-236, June.
    13. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 227-239, February.
    14. Owen Cotton‐Barratt & Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg, 2020. "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 271-282, May.

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