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Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting Model Study Based on SSA and Intelligent Optimized Algorithm

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  • Wenyu Zhang
  • Zhongyue Su
  • Hongli Zhang
  • Yanru Zhao
  • Zhiyuan Zhao

Abstract

Accurate wind speed forecasting is important for the reliable and efficient operation of the wind power system. The present study investigated singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with a reduced parameter algorithm in three time series models, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the support vector machine (SVM) model, and the artificial neural network (ANN) model, to forecast the wind speed in Shandong province, China. In the proposed model, the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) is first employed as a physical background to provide the elements of weather data. To reduce these noises, SSA is used to develop a self‐adapting parameter selection algorithm that is fully data‐driven. After optimization, the SSA‐based forecasting models are applied to forecasting the immediate short‐term wind speed and are adopted at ten wind farms in China. Finally, the performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using observed data according to three error calculation methods. The simulation results from ten cases show that the proposed method has better forecasting performance than the traditional methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenyu Zhang & Zhongyue Su & Hongli Zhang & Yanru Zhao & Zhiyuan Zhao, 2014. "Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting Model Study Based on SSA and Intelligent Optimized Algorithm," Abstract and Applied Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2014(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jnlaaa:v:2014:y:2014:i:1:n:693205
    DOI: 10.1155/2014/693205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yanqiu Sun, 2014. "A Hybrid Approach by Integrating Brain Storm Optimization Algorithm with Grey Neural Network for Stock Index Forecasting," Abstract and Applied Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2014(1).

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