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Short-term poverty dynamics in rural Indonesia during the economic crisis

  • Asep Suryahadi

    (The SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Wenefrida Widyanti

    (The SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Sudarno Sumarto

    (The SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia)

During the economic crisis, the poverty rate in Indonesia changed relatively quickly in short periods of time, implying that there were a large number of households which moved in and out of poverty relatively frequently and experienced relatively short periods of poverty. Using panel data of over 10,000 rural households which were visited four times in 14 months, this study finds that changes that took place at the household level were even greater than what were indicated by the aggregate figures. The total number of households which experienced a change in their poverty status have always been found to be substantial and much greater than the change in poverty rate. Hence, looking only at the changes in the total poverty rate could give a misleading impression on the actual poverty dynamics of households. The analysis also indicates that in order to be invulnerable to poverty, households need to have a mean real per capita consumption over time which is substantially higher than the poverty line. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 15 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 133-144

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Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:15:y:2003:i:2:p:133-144
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  1. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
  2. Christophe Muller, 1997. "Transient seasonal and chronic poverty of peasants: evidence from Rwanda," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1997-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Chris Manning, 2000. "Labour Market Adjustment to Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Context, Trends and Implications," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 105-136.
  4. Anna Wetterberg & Sudarno Sumarto & Lant Pritchett, 1999. "A National Snapshot of the Social Impact of Indonesia's Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 145-152.
  5. Frankenberg, E. & Thomas, D. & Beegle, K., 1999. "The Real Costs of Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Preliminary Findings from the Indonesia Family Life Surveys," Papers 99-04, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
  6. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Are the poor less well insured? Evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 61-81, February.
  7. Lisa Cameron, 1999. "Survey of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 3-41.
  8. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1983. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," NBER Working Papers 1199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pradhan, Menno, et al, 2001. "Eating Like Which "Joneses?" An Iterative Solution to the Choice of a Poverty Line "Reference Group."," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(4), pages 473-87, December.
  10. Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114.
  11. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
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