IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/isacfm/v19y2012i2p102-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical Analysis Of Speculative Attacks With Contractionary Real Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Ismael Arciniegas Rueda

Abstract

The effects of a currency crisis on a country's economy depend on nonlinear relations among several variables that characterize the economic, financial, legal and socio‐political structure of the country at the onset of the crisis. Those effects can be associated with contractions or expansions in output. Historically, contractionary speculative attacks are more frequent. This paper uses a parametric censored heteroscedastic TOBIT model to empirically analyse how different economic and financial variables determine the real effects of a contractionary speculative attack. Variables describing the banking sector, the international trade, the severity of the crisis and foreign interest rates are found to be significant in explaining the size of currency crises' contractionary real effects. The TOBIT's results are compared with alternative modelling strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, 2012. "Empirical Analysis Of Speculative Attacks With Contractionary Real Effects," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 102-127, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:102-127
    DOI: 10.1002/isaf.1325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.1325
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/isaf.1325?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Paolo Pesenti & Cédric Tille, 2000. "The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    6. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    8. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    9. Arabmazar, Abbas & Schmidt, Peter, 1981. "Further evidence on the robustness of the Tobit estimator to heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 253-258, November.
    10. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ismael E Arciniegas Rueda & Fabio Arciniegas, 2005. "SOM-based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks' Real Effects," International Finance 0507001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    13. Mr. Marco Rossi, 1999. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies: Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1999/066, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-752, August.
    15. Allen N. Berger & Margaret K. Kyle & Joseph M. Scalise, 2001. "Did US Bank Supervisors Get Tougher during the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier during the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Chesher, Andrew & Irish, Margaret, 1987. "Residual analysis in the grouped and censored normal linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-61.
    17. Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "Prudential Supervision: Why Is It Important and What Are the Issues?," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 1-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    20. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    21. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    23. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
    24. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep, pages 1-36.
    25. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    27. Arabmazar, Abbas & Schmidt, Peter, 1982. "An Investigation of the Robustness of the Tobit Estimator to Non-Normality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1055-1063, July.
    28. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    29. McDonald, John F & Moffitt, Robert A, 1980. "The Uses of Tobit Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 318-321, May.
    30. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    31. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2000. "Asia's trade performance after the currency crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 37-49.
    32. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
    33. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    34. Khan, Shakeeb & Powell, James L., 2001. "Two-step estimation of semiparametric censored regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 73-110, July.
    35. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Jahangir Aziz & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements," IMF Working Papers 2000/067, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Nelson, Forrest D, 1981. "A Test for Misspecification in the Censored Normal Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1317-1329, September.
    37. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, "undated". "Stopping "Hot Money" or Signaling Bad Policy? Capital Controls and the Onset of Currency Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    38. Mr. Qaizar Hussain & Clas Wihlborg, 1999. "Corporate Insolvency Procedures and Bank Behavior: A Study of Selected Asian Economies," IMF Working Papers 1999/135, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 29-59, Supplemen.
    40. Kenneth Y. Chay & James L. Powell, 2001. "Semiparametric Censored Regression Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 29-42, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Ismael E Arciniegas Rueda & Fabio Arciniegas, 2005. "SOM-based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks' Real Effects," International Finance 0507001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    4. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    6. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    7. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    9. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
    10. Bodart, Vincent & Carpantier, Jean-François, 2023. "Currency crises in emerging countries: The commodity factor," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    11. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    12. Komarek, Lubos & Komarkova, Zlatuse & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Direct Effect Central and Eastern Europe 1923-2000," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 736, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Arabinda Basistha & Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency Crises and Output Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 139-153, February.
    14. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    15. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    16. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    17. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    18. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    19. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
    20. Sheida Teimouri & Taggert J Brooks, 2015. "Output Recovery After Currency Crises," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 75-102, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:102-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1099-1174/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.