IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v33y2024i9p2013-2058.html

The effect of birth timing manipulation around carnival on birth indicators in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Melo
  • Naercio Menezes‐Filho

Abstract

This paper studies the patterns and consequences of birth timing manipulation around the carnival holiday in Brazil. We document how births are displaced around carnival and estimate the effect of displacement on birth indicators. We show that there is extensive birth timing manipulation in the form of both anticipation and postponement that results in a net increase in gestational length and reductions in neonatal and early neonatal mortality, driven by postponed births that would otherwise happen through scheduled c‐sections. We also find a reduction in birthweight for high‐risk births at the bottom of the weight distribution, driven by anticipation. Therefore, restrictions on usual delivery procedures due to the carnival holiday can be both beneficial and detrimental, raising a double‐sided issue to be addressed by policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Melo & Naercio Menezes‐Filho, 2024. "The effect of birth timing manipulation around carnival on birth indicators in Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2013-2058, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:33:y:2024:i:9:p:2013-2058
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.4858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4858
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.4858?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mireille Jacobson & Maria Kogelnik & Heather Royer, 2021. "Holiday, Just One Day out of Life: Birth Timing and Postnatal Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 651-702.
    2. David Card & Alessandra Fenizia & David Silver, 2023. "The Health Impacts of Hospital Delivery Practices," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 42-81, May.
    3. Ayala Cohen, 1983. "Seasonal Daily Effect on the Number of Births in Israel," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 32(3), pages 228-235, November.
    4. Michael Neugart & Henry Ohlsson, 2013. "Economic incentives and the timing of births: evidence from the German parental benefit reform of 2007," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 87-108, January.
    5. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2007. "From the Cradle to the Labor Market? The Effect of Birth Weight on Adult Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 409-439.
    6. Fabbri, Daniele & Monfardini, Chiara & Castaldini, Ilaria & Protonotari, Adalgisa, 2016. "Cesarean section and the manipulation of exact delivery time," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 780-789.
    7. Lo, Joan C., 2003. "Patients' attitudes vs. physicians' determination: implications for cesarean sections," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 91-96, July.
    8. Cristina Borra & Libertad González & Almudena Sevilla, 2019. "The Impact of Scheduling Birth Early on Infant Health," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 30-78.
    9. Carolina Melo & Naercio Menezes‐Filho, 2023. "The effects of a national policy to reduce c‐sections in Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 501-517, February.
    10. Douglas Almond & Kenneth Y. Chay & David S. Lee, 2005. "The Costs of Low Birth Weight," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 1031-1083.
    11. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew, 2009. "Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 246-263, February.
    12. Thomas S. Dee & Will Dobbie & Brian A. Jacob & Jonah Rockoff, 2019. "The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 382-423, July.
    13. Joshua S. Gans & Andrew Leigh, 2012. "Bargaining Over Labour: Do Patients Have Any Power?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 182-194, June.
    14. Brown, H. III, 1996. "Physician demand for leisure: implications for cesarean section rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 233-242, April.
    15. Philip Oreopoulos & Mark Stabile & Randy Walld & Leslie L. Roos, 2008. "Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Consequences of Poor Infant Health: An Analysis Using Siblings and Twins," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(1).
    16. repec:ucn:wpaper:10197/317 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew & Varganova, Elena, 2007. "Minding the shop: The case of obstetrics conferences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(7), pages 1458-1465, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schulkind, Lisa & Shapiro, Teny Maghakian, 2014. "What a difference a day makes: Quantifying the effects of birth timing manipulation on infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 139-158.
    2. Fabbri, Daniele & Monfardini, Chiara & Castaldini, Ilaria & Protonotari, Adalgisa, 2016. "Cesarean section and the manipulation of exact delivery time," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 780-789.
    3. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew & Varganova, Elena, 2007. "Minding the shop: The case of obstetrics conferences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(7), pages 1458-1465, October.
    4. Almond, Douglas & Chee, Christine Pal & Sviatschi, Maria Micaela & Zhong, Nan, 2015. "Auspicious birth dates among Chinese in California," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 153-159.
    5. Huang, Cheng & Zhang, Shiying & Zhao, Qingguo & Lin, Yan, 2021. "Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Hendrik Jürges, 2017. "Financial incentives, timing of births, and infant health: a closer look into the delivery room," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(2), pages 195-208, March.
    7. Maria Koch Gregersen, 2024. "Earlier routine induction of labor—Consequences on mother and child morbidity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 2399-2418, October.
    8. Libertad González Luna & Parijat Maitra, 2025. "Born too soon? The educational costs of early elective deliveries," Economics Working Papers 1933, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Joshua S. Gans & Andrew Leigh, 2012. "Bargaining Over Labour: Do Patients Have Any Power?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 182-194, June.
    10. Tamm, Marcus, 2013. "The Impact of a Large Parental Leave Benefit Reform on the Timing of Birth around the Day of Implementation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 75(4), pages 585-601.
    11. Carolina Melo & Naercio Menezes‐Filho, 2023. "The effects of a national policy to reduce c‐sections in Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 501-517, February.
    12. Marcus Tamm, 2013. "The Impact of a Large Parental Leave Benefit Reform on the Timing of Birth around the Day of Implementation-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 585-601, August.
    13. Di Giacomo, Marina & Piacenza, Massimiliano & Salmasi, Luca & Turati, Gilberto, 2025. "Understanding labour productivity in maternity wards," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    14. Cheng Huang & Xiaojing Ma & Shiying Zhang & Qingguo Zhao, 2020. "Numerological preferences, timing of births and the long-term effect on schooling," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 531-554, April.
    15. Pilvar, Hanifa & Yousefi, Kowsar, 2021. "Changing physicians’ incentives to control the C-section rate: Evidence from a major health care reform in Iran," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Pedersen, Ida Katjivena & Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Mølland, Eirin & Kinge, Jonas Minet, 2025. "Birth weight and school performance," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    17. Gabriella Conti & Mark Hanson & Hazel Inskip & Sarah Crozier & Cyrus Cooper & Keith Godfrey, 2018. "Beyond Birth Weight: The Origins of Human Capital," Working Papers 2018-089, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    18. Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2015. "School Entry Cutoff Date and the Timing of Births," NBER Working Papers 21402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. McDonough, Ian K. & Millimet, Daniel L., 2017. "Missing data, imputation, and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 141-155.
    20. Cristina Borra & Libertad González & Almudena Sevilla, 2019. "The Impact of Scheduling Birth Early on Infant Health," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 30-78.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:33:y:2024:i:9:p:2013-2058. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.