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External Validity of Contingent Valuation: Comparing Hypothetical and Actual Payments

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  • Mandy Ryan
  • Emmanouil Mentzakis
  • Suthi Jareinpituk
  • John Cairns

Abstract

Whilst contingent valuation is increasingly used in economics to value benefits, questions remain concerning its external validity that is do hypothetical responses match actual responses? We present results from the first within sample field test. Whilst Hypothetical No is always an Actual No, Hypothetical Yes exceed Actual Yes responses. A constant rate of response reversals across bids/prices could suggest theoretically consistent option value responses. Certainty calibrations (verbal and numerical response scales) minimise hypothetical–actual discrepancies offering a useful solution. Helping respondents resolve uncertainty may reduce the discrepancy between hypothetical and actual payments and thus lead to more accurate policy recommendations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Mandy Ryan & Emmanouil Mentzakis & Suthi Jareinpituk & John Cairns, 2017. "External Validity of Contingent Valuation: Comparing Hypothetical and Actual Payments," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(11), pages 1467-1473, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:26:y:2017:i:11:p:1467-1473
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3436
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sun, Sizhong, 2022. "The demand for a COVID-19 vaccine," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. William F. Vásquez & Jennifer M. Trudeau, 2022. "Willingness to give amid pandemics: a contingent valuation of anticipated nongovernmental immunization programs," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, March.
    4. Robert J. Johnston & Kevin J. Boyle & Wiktor (Vic) Adamowicz & Jeff Bennett & Roy Brouwer & Trudy Ann Cameron & W. Michael Hanemann & Nick Hanley & Mandy Ryan & Riccardo Scarpa & Roger Tourangeau & Ch, 2017. "Contemporary Guidance for Stated Preference Studies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 319-405.
    5. William F. Vásquez & Jennifer M. Trudeau & Jessica Alicea‐Planas, 2021. "Immediate and informative feedback during a pandemic: Using stated preference analysis to predict vaccine uptake rates," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 3123-3137, December.
    6. David John Mott, 2018. "Incorporating Quantitative Patient Preference Data into Healthcare Decision Making Processes: Is HTA Falling Behind?," The Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, Springer;International Academy of Health Preference Research, vol. 11(3), pages 249-252, June.
    7. Wudu T Jemberu & Wassie Molla & Tigabu Dagnew & Jonathan Rushton & Henk Hogeveen, 2020. "Farmers’ willingness to pay for foot and mouth disease vaccine in different cattle production systems in Amhara region of Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-12, October.
    8. Laia Soler & Nicolas Borzykowski, 2021. "The costs of celiac disease: a contingent valuation in Switzerland," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(9), pages 1487-1505, December.

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