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Hypothetical versus real preferences: results from an opportunistic field experiment

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  • Stirling Bryan
  • Sue Jowett

Abstract

Over recent years there has been renewed interest in cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) in health care but the ‘hypothetical bias’ concern (i.e. the belief that WTP values overstate real preferences) is a remaining anxiety. This paper reports new empirical data comparing hypothetical and real preferences in a health care context, using the clinical setting of patient self‐management (PSM) of anticoagulation (warfarin) therapy. The data offer considerable support for the use of WTP and CBAs in a self‐management health care context; the hypothetical bias hypothesis is not supported by our data. The generalisability of these results to other health care settings needs to be explored. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Stirling Bryan & Sue Jowett, 2010. "Hypothetical versus real preferences: results from an opportunistic field experiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(12), pages 1502-1509, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:12:p:1502-1509
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. R. Bhatia & J. A. Fox-Rushby, 2003. "Validity of Willingness to Pay: hypothetical versus actual payment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 737-740.
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    1. Kanya, Lucy & Sanghera, Sabina & Lewin, Alex & Fox-Rushby, Julia, 2019. "The criterion validity of willingness to pay methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 238-261.
    2. Kanya, Lucy & Saghera, Sabina & Lewin, Alex & Fox-Rushby, Julia, 2019. "The criterion validity of willingness to pay methods: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Anna Alberini & Milan Ščasný, 2021. "On the validity of the estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 55-87, February.
    4. Briony D. Pulford & Andrew M. Colman & Graham Loomes, 2018. "Incentive Magnitude Effects in Experimental Games: Bigger is not Necessarily Better," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, January.
    5. Mandy Ryan & Emmanouil Mentzakis & Suthi Jareinpituk & John Cairns, 2017. "External Validity of Contingent Valuation: Comparing Hypothetical and Actual Payments," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(11), pages 1467-1473, November.

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