World Economic Growth is Accelerating, Current Account Imbalances Remain High. Medium-term Outlook for the World Economy until 2011
The medium-term outlook for the world economy starts from the following assumptions: The US dollar will continue to depreciate against the euro until 2008 and will then stabilise. More specifically, the euro exchange rate is assumed to rise to 1.42 $ until 2008, primarily as a result of a slowdown of the US economy, and to subsequently decline moderately until 2011 (to 1.35 $). Crucial factors in the persistent undervaluation of the dollar are the high current account deficit and the enormous foreign debt of the USA. The price of crude oil (Brent) in 2007 is forecast at 60 $ per barrel and is expected to gradually rise thereafter to 65 $ in 2011, primarily in reaction to the continued strong expansion of the world economy. Short-term interest rates in the euro area will average 2.8 percent over the 2007-2011 period, thus remaining lower than those in the USA (4.8 percent).
Volume (Year): 80 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien|
Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Austrian Institute of Economic Research Publikationsverkauf und Abonnentenbetreuung Arsenal, Objekt 20 A-1030 Vienna/Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005.
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Richard Clarida, "undated". "The Unsustainable U S Current Account Position Revisited," Working Paper 14901, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Globalization without Global Money: The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and World Currency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(3), pages 365-395, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2007:i:2:p:109-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.