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Does it Pay to Escape Herding Behaviour in the Housing Market?

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  • Olszewski Krzysztof

    (College of Business Administration, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland)

Abstract

This article discusses whether it is reasonable for a house buyer to escape herding behavior in the housing market, that is buying when prices rise. We add to the behavioral economics literature, which usually describes in detail why house buyers are irrational but gives usually little recommendations what should be done to make them behave more rationally. We focus our analysis on Poland, a post-socialistic country with a still inadequate housing stock. We compare the costs and gains of buyers that take out a mortgage versus those who rent housing in Warsaw, Poland. The calculation for the period 2010-2022 shows that buying is profitable in the long-term, despite the fact that it is often irrational in the short term. We conclude that only an improvement in the rental market, which absorbs a lot of demand, can make those who need housing become patient and take more rational purchase decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Olszewski Krzysztof, 2025. "Does it Pay to Escape Herding Behaviour in the Housing Market?," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 33(2), pages 123-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:33:y:2025:i:2:p:123-134:n:1010
    DOI: 10.2478/remav-2025-0020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christophe André & Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Asymmetric Behaviour in Nominal and Real Housing Prices: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Working Papers 201711, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Christophe André & Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Asymmetric Behavior in Nominal and Real Housing Prices: Evidence from Emerging and Advanced Economies," Journal of Real Estate Literature, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 409-425, January.
    3. Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    4. Arbel, Yuval & Fialkoff, Chaim & Kerner, Amichai, 2016. "Does the first impression matter? Efficiency testing of tenure-choice decision," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-237.
    5. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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