IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v27y2023i1p18-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating The Optimal Exit Timing And Leverage During The Covid-19 Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • ABDELHAMID, Mohamed Ben

    (LEFMI, University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.)

  • BELLALAH, Makram

    (LEFMI, University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the corporate credit policies as a means of preventing market exit in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. A real options framework incorporating dynamic programming is employed to investigate the relationship between exit decisions, leverage ratio and productivity uncertainty. Our paper presents a novel approach to the exit problem in comparison to other attempts in early 2020. Taking into account the dynamics of firms, we allow for a variety of factors, such as productivity uncertainty, debt readjustment, liquidity constraints, and leverage level, to explain the optimal time for a firm to exit during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that the corporate credit programs have a significant positive impact and suggests that a greater leverage ratio increases the likelihood of survival and delays the decision to exit.

Suggested Citation

  • ABDELHAMID, Mohamed Ben & BELLALAH, Makram, 2023. "Investigating The Optimal Exit Timing And Leverage During The Covid-19 Crisis," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 27(1), pages 18-38, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:27:y:2023:i:1:p:18-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol27i1p18-38.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bo Becker & Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2020. "Corporate debt burdens threaten economic recovery after COVID-19: Planning for debt restructuring should start now," Vox eBook Chapters, in: AgneÌ€s BeÌ nassy-QueÌ reÌ & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (ed.), Europe in the Time of Covid-19, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 34-40, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Rust, John & Rothwell, Geoffrey, 1995. "Optimal Response to a Shift in Regulatory Regime: The Case of the US Nuclear Power Industry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(S), pages 75-118, Suppl. De.
    3. Sheridan Titman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2007. "A Dynamic Model of Optimal Capital Structure," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 401-451.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    6. Miyakawa, Daisuke & Oikawa, Koki & Ueda, Kozo, 2021. "Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    8. Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Carletti, Elena & Haselmann, Rainer & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schaefer, Stephen M. & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2020. "The Coronavirus and financial stability," SAFE Policy Letters 78, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Pauli Murto & Marko Terviö, 2014. "Exit Options And Dividend Policy Under Liquidity Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 197-221, February.
    10. Pieralli, Simone & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2013. "A model of firm exit under inefficiency and uncertainty," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 155700, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    11. Ani L. Katchova & Mary Clare Ahearn, 2017. "Farm entry and exit from US agriculture," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 77(1), pages 50-63, May.
    12. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    13. Pauli Murto & Marko Terviö, 2014. "Exit Options And Dividend Policy Under Liquidity Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 197-221, February.
    14. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    15. Janice C. Eberly & Andrew B. Abel, 2004. "Q Theory Without Adjustment Costs & Cash Flow Effects Without Financing Constraints," 2004 Meeting Papers 205, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December.
    17. AgneÌ€s BeÌ nassy-QueÌ reÌ & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2020. "Europe in the time of Covid-19: A new crash test and a new opportunity," Vox eBook Chapters, in: AgneÌ€s BeÌ nassy-QueÌ reÌ & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (ed.), Europe in the Time of Covid-19, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 1-20, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James R. Tybout, 2000. "Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 11-44, March.
    2. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    3. Natalia Kuosmanen & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Inter-industry and intra-industry switching as sources of productivity growth: structural change of Finland’s ICT industries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 107-120, April.
    4. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    5. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    6. I. Sebastian Buhai & Miguel A. Portela & Coen N. Teulings & Aico van Vuuren, 2014. "Returns to Tenure or Seniority?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 705-730, March.
    7. Guidi, Francesco & Solomon, Edna & Trushin, Eshref & Ugur, Mehmet, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," EconStor Preprints 110896, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Li, Daiyue & Jin, Yanhong & Cheng, Mingwang, 2024. "Unleashing the power of industrial robotics on firm productivity: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 500-520.
    9. Dean Corbae & Pablo D’Erasmo, 2021. "Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics [Does Industry-wide distress Affect Defaulted Firms? Evidence from Creditor Recoveries]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2239-2274.
    10. Blanchard, Pierre, 2012. "The determinants of firm exit in the French food industries," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 93(02), pages 193-212, June.
    11. Huynh, Kim P. & Petrunia, Robert J. & Voia, Marcel, 2012. "Duration of new firms: The role of startup financial conditions, industry and aggregate factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 354-362.
    12. Corato, Luca Di & Maoz, Yishay D., 2023. "Externality control and endogenous market structure under uncertainty: The price vs. quantity dilemma," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Richard I. Harris & Qian Cher Li, 2011. "The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 381-397, November.
    14. Luca Corato & Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2013. "Land conversion pace under uncertainty and irreversibility: too fast or too slow?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 45-82, September.
    15. Tarun Sabarwal, 2005. "The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 433-445, October.
    16. Moretto, Michele, 2008. "Competition and irreversible investments under uncertainty," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-88, March.
    17. Schündeln, Matthias, 2005. "Modeling Firm Dynamics to Identify the Cost of Financing Constraints in Ghanaian Manufacturing," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 29, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    18. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
    19. Susanne Prantl, 2000. "Post-Entry Selection Among Newly Founded Firms in East and West Germany after Unification: A Competing Risk Model with Forced Bankruptcy Liquidations and Voluntary Liquidations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1602, Econometric Society.
    20. Vladimir Smirnyagin, 2020. "Compositional Nature of Firm Growth and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 20-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; liquidity productivity; debt; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:27:y:2023:i:1:p:18-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.