IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v16y2012i3p112-125.html

Theoretical And Practical Aspects Regarding The Exchange Rate And The Equilibrium Exchange Rate In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Ailinca, Alina Georgeta

    (Centre of Financial and Monetary Research “Victor Slăvescu”, Romanian Academy)

  • Milea, Camelia

    (Centre of Financial and Monetary Research “Victor Slăvescu”, Romanian Academy)

  • Iordache, Floarea

    (Centre of Financial and Monetary Research “Victor Slăvescu”, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The integration within the Economic and Monetary Union requires the participation to the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and meeting the nominal convergence criteria set by the Maastricht treaty. Under these circumstances, it becomes crucial to establish the central parity upon entering ERM II as close as possible to the exchange rate of equilibrium of the national currency versus the Euro. This would support a harmonious economic development within the ERM II and, subsequently, within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Given the many methodologies of calculation, each one with its advantages and disadvantages, it is extremely difficult to select a specific approach in order to set the nominal and real exchange rate of equilibrium. The aim of this paper is not to set a specific methodology to determine the exchange rate of equilibrium, but to give our personal opinion on the complex issue of the equilibrium exchange rate. Under the current conditions of the, still strong vulnerabilities and tensions due to the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, it is premature to set an exchange rate of equilibrium leu/Euro adequate to the requirements set by the integration within the ERM II, particularly since an inadequate rate might make it difficult to maintain the currency on the variation band imposed by the Maastricht criterium and may even be an invitation for speculative attacks on the national currency, which may cause economic imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Ailinca, Alina Georgeta & Milea, Camelia & Iordache, Floarea, 2012. "Theoretical And Practical Aspects Regarding The Exchange Rate And The Equilibrium Exchange Rate In Romania," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 16(3), pages 112-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:112-125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol16i3p112-125.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 2007/296, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    3. Dumitru, Ionut, 2006. "Estimarea cursului de schimb real de echilibru in România [The equilibrium exchange rate in Romania]," MPRA Paper 10631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    5. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    6. Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Waves of Creative Destruction: Customer Bases and the Dynamics of Innovation," NBER Working Papers 4782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates, National Price Levels, and the Peace Dividend," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 55-61, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," FIW Working Paper series 065, FIW.
    2. Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Anaya Longaric, Pablo & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    4. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2018. "EQCHANGE: A world database on actual and equilibrium effective exchange rates," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 206-230.
    5. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," NBP Working Papers 55, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    7. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    8. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: Enfoques alternativos de equilibrio y desalineamiento [Real exchange rate in the Dominican Republic: Alternative approaches to equilibrium and misalignment]," MPRA Paper 70943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    10. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
    11. Jorge Eduardo Carrera, 2008. "Tipo de cambio real de equilibrio como variable no observable," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 223-243, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    12. Mr. Claudio A Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2006/221, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Muhammad Zakaria, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan'S Recent Float," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 471-489.
    14. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    15. José Luis Espert & Guido Vignoli, 2018. "Tipo de cambio real de largo plazo en Argentina: 1961-2017," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 630, Universidad del CEMA.
    16. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, February.
    17. Michal Rubaszek, 2005. "Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty," NBP Working Papers 35, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    18. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    19. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    20. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:112-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.