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The State of Short-term Expectation

  • M. G. Hayes

The claim that Keynes makes a tacit assumption in Chapter 3 of The General Theory , that short-term expectations are fulfilled, is unwarranted and unnecessary. Kregel's seminal 1976 paper and its subsequent development by Chick and others have contributed to the general acceptance of this claim; these contributions are critically evaluated in the present paper. This critique clears the ground for a recognition that Keynes instead adopted the assumption of judicious foresight, which would now be called short-term rational expectations. That recognition in turn should encourage a reappraisal of Keynes's thought, by mainstream economists and others.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09538259.2012.729929
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Review of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 205-224

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Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:25:y:2013:i:2:p:205-224
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  1. M. G. Hayes, 2006. "The Economics of Keynes," Books, Edward Elgar, number 12601, July.
  2. Mark Hayes, 2007. "The Point of Effective Demand," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 55-80.
  3. Gary Mongiovi, 2000. "Shackle on Equilibrium: A Critique," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 108-124.
  4. M. G. Hayes, 2008. "Keynes's degree of competition," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 275-291.
  5. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2007. "History versus equilibrium? on the possibility and realist basis of a general critique of traditional equilibrium analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(2), pages 191-209, January.
  6. M. G. Hayes, 2013. "The State of Short-term Expectation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 205-224, April.
  7. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-25, June.
  8. Tony Lawson, 2005. "The (confused) state of equilibrium analysis in modern economics: an explanation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(3), pages 423-444, April.
  9. Claudio Sardoni, 2008. "Some considerations on equilibrium and realism," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 485-490, April.
  10. Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2011. "The Short Period and the Long Period in Macroeconomics: An Awkward Distinction," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 371-388.
  11. Olivier Allain, 2006. "Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  12. Jochen Hartwig, 2007. "Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the Principle of Effective Demand," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 725-739.
  13. Mark Hayes, 2006. "The Economics of Keynes: A New Guide to The General Theory," Books, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG), number nggt.
  14. Roger Backhouse, 2004. "History and equilibrium: A partial defense of equilibrium economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-305.
  15. John King, 1993. "Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis Since Keynes: A Partial History," Working Papers 1993.16, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
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