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Regional Disparities and Migration: Linear and Switching Model Estimations for Poland

Listed author(s):
  • Stefano Mainardi

Mainardi S. (2004) Regional disparities and migration: linear and switching model estimations for Poland, Regional Studies38, 767-781. Along with capital mobility and fiscal instruments as local poverty alleviation targeting, internal migration can contribute to a partial absorption of external shocks, with improved allocation efficiency and budget savings. In transition economies in Central Europe, the need for adjustment is further motivated by the severe post-Communist transition shocks, and the envisaged asymmetric impact across regions of the process of economic integration with the European Union. This paper first reviews the main hypotheses and estimation problems concerning internal migration models. Specific attention is addressed to unobserved heterogeneity and latent migration demand, with implications for welfare equilibrium at a regional level, particularly in a transition economy setting. Single and multiple equation methods are then applied to linear and switching model specifications on 1995-2000 panel data of Polish voivodships. Regression estimates are partly consistent with results of studies on earlier periods and other countries, and offer mixed support for a switching model with known separation criterion. Mainardi S. (2004) Les ecarts et la migration regionaux: des estimations lineaires et par commutation, Regional Studies38, 767-781. Conjointement avec la mobilite du capital et les outils fiscaux qui ciblent la reduction de la pauvrete locale, la migration interne peut contribuer a l'amortissement partiel des chocs externes a partir d'une amelioration de l'efficacite de la redistribution et des economies budgetaires. Dans les economies de l'Europe centrale en voie de transition, la necessite d'ajuster est davantage motivee par la gravite des chocs de transition post-communistes et par l'impact interregional asymetrique anticipe du processus d'integration economique dans l'Ue. Dans un premier temps, cet article cherche a faire la critique des principaux problemes quant aux hypotheses et aux estimations relatifs aux modeles de la migration interne. On prete une attention particuliere a l'heterogeneite inapercue et a la demande de migration cachee, d'ou des retombees pour le welfare equilibre regional, en particulier dans une economie en voie de transition. On applique des methodes a equation unique et multiple a des modeles lineaires et de commutation employant des donnees par echantillon permanent allant de 1995 a l'an 2000 pour les regions polonaises. Il s'avere que les estimations par regression correspondent dans une certaine mesure aux resultats des etudes sur des periodes anterieures et menees dans d'autres pays, et qui viennent dans une certaine mesure a l'appui d'un modele de commutation a base d'un critere de separation reconnu. Mainardi S. (2004) Regionale Disparitaten und Wanderung: lineare und Umschichtungsmodellberechnungen fur Polen, Regional Studies38, 767-781. Auf die gleiche Weise wie Kapitalbeweglichkeit und finanzpolitische Instrumente dazu eingesetzt werden, Armut am Orte zu lindern, kann auch interne Wanderung zum teilweisen Auffangen von aussen herantretender Schockwirkungen mit verbesserter Effizienz von Zuwendungen und Haushaltseinsparungen beitragen. In ubergangswirtschaften in Mitteleuropa wird die Notwendigkeit der Anpassung zusatzlich durch die tiefgreifenden Schockwirkungen des ubergangs von der nachkommunistischen Zeit motiviert, sowie durch die voraussichtliche asymetrische Auswirkung des Vorgangs der wirtschaftlichen Integration mit der EU in allen Regionen. Dieser Aufsatz bespricht zunachst Haupthypothesen und Berechnungsprobleme hinsichtlich interner Wanderungsmodelle. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird unbeobachteter Heterogenitat und verborgenen Wanderungswunschen gewidmet, mit Auswirkungen auf das Gleichgewicht des Wohlfahrtswesens auf regionaler Ebene, besonders im Zusammenhang einer ubergangswirtschaft. Auf einen Einzig- und Vielfachgleichungsan-satz gestutzte Methoden werden dann auf Aufstellungen linearer und umgestellter Modelle fur Datenlisten polnischer Verwaltungseinheiten im Zeitraum 1995-2000 angewandt. Regresssionsberechnungen stimmen teilweise mit den Untersuchungsergebnissen fur fruhere Zeitraume und andere Lander uberein, und bieten sich als gemischte Befurwortung eines Umstellungsmodells mit bekannten Teilungskriterien an. Mainardi S. (2004) Disparidades regionales y migracion: estimaciones derivadas de modelos lineales y switching para Polonia, Regional Studies38, 767-781. Junto con la movilidad de capital y los instrumentos fiscales para reducir las pobreza local, la migracion interna puede contribuir a una absorcion parcial de los shocks externos, con una mejora en la eficacia de asignacion y ahorros en el presupuesto. En las economias en transicion de Europa Central, la necesidad de ajuste se ve ademas motivada por los fuertes shocks de la transicion post-comunista, y por el previsto impacto asimetrico a traves de las regiones del proceso de integracion economica con la Union Europea. En primer lugar, este articulo revisa las principales hipotesis y problemas de estimacion con respecto a los modelos de migracion interna. Se presta una atencion especial a la desapercibida heterogeneidad y a la latente demanda de migracion, con implicaciones para un equilibrio en el bienestar social a nivel regional, particularmente en el marco de una economia en transicion. A continuacion se aplican metodos de ecuaciones simples y multiples a especificaciones de modelos lineales y switching en datos panel de regiones polacas para el periodo comprendido entre 1995 y 2000. Las estimaciones de las regresiones son concuerdan parcialmente con los resultados de estudios de periodos anteriores y de otros paises, y ofrencen un apoyo mixto para un modelo switching con conocidos criterios de separacion.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 38 (2004)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 767-781

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:38:y:2004:i:7:p:767-781
DOI: 10.1080/0034340042000265250
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  1. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul L, 1993. "Migration Theory and Evidence: An Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Treyz, George I, et al, 1993. "The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 209-214, May.
  3. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  4. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2004. "Migration and regional adjustment to asymmetric shocks in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 230-247, June.
  6. Gurmu, Shiferaw, 1997. "Semi-Parametric Estimation of Hurdle Regression Models with an Application to Medicaid Utilization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 225-243, May-June.
  7. Joel L. Horowitz & N. E. Savin, 2001. "Binary Response Models: Logits, Probits and Semiparametrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 43-56, Fall.
  8. Lee, Lung-Fei & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Switching Regression Models with Imperfect Sample Separation Information-With an Application on Cartel Stability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 391-418, March.
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