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Estimating GARCH models using support vector machines

Author

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  • Fernando Perez-cruz
  • Julio Afonso-rodriguez
  • Javier Giner

Abstract

Support vector machines (SVMs) are a new nonparametric tool for regression estimation. We will use this tool to estimate the parameters of a GARCH model for predicting the conditional volatility of stock market returns. GARCH models are usually estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) procedures, assuming that the data are normally distributed. In this paper, we will show that GARCH models can be estimated using SVMs and that such estimates have a higher predicting ability than those obtained via common ML methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Perez-cruz & Julio Afonso-rodriguez & Javier Giner, 2003. "Estimating GARCH models using support vector machines," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 163-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:3:y:2003:i:3:p:163-172
    DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/3/3/302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Shusheng Ding & Tianxiang Cui & Yongmin Zhang & Jiawei Li, 2021. "Liquidity effects on oil volatility forecasting: From fintech perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Guillermo Santamaría-Bonfil & Juan Frausto-Solís & Ignacio Vázquez-Rodarte, 2015. "Volatility Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and a Hybrid Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 111-133, January.
    4. Marcin Fałdziński & Piotr Fiszeder & Witold Orzeszko, 2020. "Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Pedro Correia S. Bezerra & Pedro Henrique M. Albuquerque, 2017. "Volatility forecasting via SVR–GARCH with mixture of Gaussian kernels," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196, April.
    6. Yong Shi & Wei Dai & Wen Long & Bo Li, 2021. "Deep Kernel Gaussian Process Based Financial Market Predictions," Papers 2105.12293, arXiv.org.
    7. Hao Sun & Bo Yu, 2020. "Forecasting Financial Returns Volatility: A GARCH-SVR Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 451-471, February.
    8. Jun Lu & Shao Yi, 2022. "Reducing overestimating and underestimating volatility via the augmented blending-ARCH model," Papers 2203.12456, arXiv.org.
    9. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    10. Tristan Fletcher & Zakria Hussain & John Shawe-Taylor, 2010. "Currency Forecasting using Multiple Kernel Learning with Financially Motivated Features," Papers 1011.6097, arXiv.org.
    11. Nawaf Almaskati, 2022. "Machine learning in finance: Major applications, issues, metrics, and future trends," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-32, September.
    12. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    13. Jasleen Kaur & Khushdeep Dharni, 2022. "Application and performance of data mining techniques in stock market: A review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 219-241, October.
    14. Tristan Fletcher & John Shawe-Taylor, 2013. "Multiple Kernel Learning with Fisher Kernels for High Frequency Currency Prediction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 217-240, August.
    15. Yushu Li & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson, 2023. "Investigating the Asymmetric Behavior of Oil Price Volatility Using Support Vector Regression," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1765-1790, April.
    16. Jun Zhang & Lan Li & Wei Chen, 2021. "Predicting Stock Price Using Two-Stage Machine Learning Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1237-1261, April.
    17. Georgi Nalbantov & Philip Hans Franses & Patrick Groenen & Jan Bioch, 2010. "Estimating the Market Share Attraction Model using Support Vector Regressions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 688-716.

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