An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model
The present paper provides a multi-period contagion model in the credit risk field. Our model is an extension of Davis and Lo's infectious default model. We consider an economy of n firms that may default directly or may be infected by other defaulting firms (a domino effect also being possible). Spontaneous defaults without external influence and infection are described by not necessarily independent Bernoulli-type random variables. Moreover, several sources of contamination could be required to infect another firm. In this paper we compute the probability distribution function of the total number of defaults in a dependency context. We also give a simple recursive algorithm to compute this distribution in an exchangeability context. Numerical applications illustrate the impact of exchangeability among direct defaults and among contaminations, on different indicators calculated from the law of the total number of defaults. We then calibrate the model on iTraxx data before and during the crisis. The dynamic feature together with the contagion effect have a significant impact on the model performance, especially during the recent distressed period.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 13 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Denuit, Michel & Dhaene, Jan & Ribas, Carmen, 2001. "Does positive dependence between individual risks increase stop-loss premiums?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 305-308, June.
- Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2010. "Information Transfer Effects of Bond Rating Downgrades," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 683-706, 08.
- Denuit, Michel & Lefevre, Claude & Utev, Sergey, 2002. "Measuring the impact of dependence between claims occurrences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 0573, European Central Bank.
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
- Fan Yu, 2007. "Correlated Defaults In Intensity-Based Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 155-173.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Vanini, Paolo, 2007. "A simple model of credit contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2475-2492, August.
- Herbertsson, Alexander, 2007. "Pricing Synthetic CDO Tranches in a Model with Default Contagion Using the Matrix-Analytic Approach," Working Papers in Economics 270, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
- M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
- Friedel Epple & Sam Morgan & Lutz Schloegl, 2007. "Joint Distributions Of Portfolio Losses And Exotic Portfolio Products," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 733-748.
- Rüdiger Frey & Jochen Backhaus, 2008. "Pricing And Hedging Of Portfolio Credit Derivatives With Interacting Default Intensities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(06), pages 611-634.
- Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:13:y:2013:i:3:p:407-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.