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Information Transfer Effects of Bond Rating Downgrades

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  • Philippe Jorion
  • Gaiyan Zhang

Abstract

This paper investigates information transfer effects of bond rating downgrades measured by equity abnormal returns for industry portfolios. Industry rivals can be subject to two opposing effects, the contagion effect and the competition effect. We find that the net effect is strongly dependent on the original bond rating of the downgraded firm. For investment-grade (speculative-grade) firms, industry abnormal equity returns are negative (positive), which implies a predominant "contagion (competition)" effect. The analysis reveals a rich pattern of positive and negative correlations across negative credit events, which can be used to improve our understanding of portfolio credit risk models. Copyright (c) 2010, The Eastern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2010. "Information Transfer Effects of Bond Rating Downgrades," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 683-706, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:45:y:2010:i:3:p:683-706
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Jung-Hsien & Hung, Mao-Wei & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2015. "Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 232-238.
    2. Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova & Joel Barber & Krishnan Dandapani, 2011. "Credit Spread Changes and Equity Volatility: Evidence from Daily Data," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 357-383, August.
    3. Körner, Finn Marten & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings and the transnationalization of finance: Evidence from a gravity model of portfolio investment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-54.
    4. Valeriya Dinger & Vlad Marincas & Francesco Vallascas, 2018. "Systemic Effects of Bank Equity Issues: Competition, Stabilization and Contagion," Working Papers 111, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    5. Areski Cousin & Diana Dorobantu & Didier Rullière, 2013. "An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, February.
    6. Hu, Haoshen & Kaspereit, Thomas & Prokop, Jörg, 2016. "The information content of issuer rating changes: Evidence for the G7 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 99-108.
    7. Zhu, Hui, 2014. "Implications of limited investor attention to customer–supplier information transfers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 405-416.
    8. Finnerty, John D. & Miller, Cameron D. & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2013. "The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2011-2030.
    9. Luís M.S. Coelho & Ruben M.T. Peixinho & Siri Terjensen, 2011. "The intraindustry effects of going concern audit reports," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_23, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    10. Luís M. S. Coelho & Rúben M. T. Peixinho & Siri Terjensen, 2012. "Going concern opinions are not bad news: Evidence from industry rivals," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. repec:eee:jebusi:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2016.20 is not listed on IDEAS

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