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A profitable trading and risk management strategy despite transaction costs

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  • Ahmet Duran
  • Michael Bommarito

Abstract

We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost for an adaptive equally weighted portfolio. Moreover, we implement a rule-based expert system for the daily financial decision-making process using the power of spectral analysis. We use several key components such as principal component analysis, partitioning, memory in stock markets, percentile for relative standing, the first four normalized central moments, learning algorithm, and switching among several investment positions consisting of short stock market, long stock market and money market with real risk-free rates. We find that it is possible to beat the proxy for the equity market without short selling for 168 S&P 500-listed stocks during the 1998-2008 period and 213 Russell 2000-listed stocks during the 1995-2007 period. Our Monte Carlo simulation for both the various set of stocks and the interval of time confirms our findings.

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  • Ahmet Duran & Michael Bommarito, 2011. "A profitable trading and risk management strategy despite transaction costs," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 829-848.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:11:y:2011:i:6:p:829-848
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680903449815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bommarito, Michael J. & Duran, Ahmet, 2018. "Spectral analysis of time-dependent market-adjusted return correlation matrix," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 273-282.
    2. Uluyol, Burhan & Hui Pu, Suan & Shaturaev, Jakhongir & Kanaparan, Geetha, 2023. "Cracking the Code of Market Secrets: A Deep Dive into Financial Anomalies," MPRA Paper 119039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2023.
    3. Jordan Mann & J. Nathan Kutz, 2016. "Dynamic mode decomposition for financial trading strategies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1643-1655, November.
    4. Frank Thomas Seifried, 2010. "Optimal Investment for Worst-Case Crash Scenarios: A Martingale Approach," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 559-579, August.
    5. Gurdal Ertek & Aysha Al-Kaabi & Aktham Issa Maghyereh, 2022. "Analytical Modeling and Empirical Analysis of Binary Options Strategies," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, July.

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