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The adaptive nature of liquidity taking in limit order books

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  • Damian Eduardo Taranto
  • Giacomo Bormetti
  • Fabrizio Lillo

Abstract

In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A possible solution is provided by asymmetric liquidity, which states that the impact of a buy or sell order is inversely related to the probability of its occurrence. We empirically find that when the order flow predictability increases in one direction, the liquidity in the opposite side decreases, but the probability that a trade moves the price decreases significantly. While the last mechanism is able to counterbalance the persistence of order flow and restore efficiency and diffusivity, the first acts in opposite direction. We introduce a statistical order book model where the persistence of the order flow is mitigated by adjusting the market order volume to the predictability of the order flow. The model reproduces the diffusive behaviour of prices at all time scales without fine-tuning the values of parameters, as well as the behaviour of most order book quantities as a function of the local predictability of order flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Damian Eduardo Taranto & Giacomo Bormetti & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "The adaptive nature of liquidity taking in limit order books," Papers 1403.0842, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.0842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004. "What really causes large price changes?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
    9. E. Bacry & J. F Muzy, 2013. "Hawkes model for price and trades high-frequency dynamics," Papers 1301.1135, arXiv.org.
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    11. Zoltán Eisler & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren, 2012. "The price impact of order book events: market orders, limit orders and cancellations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1395-1419, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2019. "Dynamic Predictor Selection And Order Splitting In A Limit Order Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1757-1792, July.
    2. Julius Bonart & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "A continuous and efficient fundamental price on the discrete order book grid," Papers 1608.00756, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    3. Erdinc Akyildirim & Shaen Corbet & Guzhan Gulay & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2019. "Order Flow Persistence in Equity Spot and Futures Markets: Evidence from a Dynamic Emerging Market," Working Papers 2019-011, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2018. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning," Papers 1803.06917, arXiv.org.
    5. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2018. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning," Working Papers hal-01754054, HAL.
    6. Bonart, Julius & Lillo, Fabrizio, 2018. "A continuous and efficient fundamental price on the discrete order book grid," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 698-713.
    7. Paolo Barucca & Fabrizio Lillo, 2017. "Behind the price: on the role of agent's reflexivity in financial market microstructure," Papers 1708.07047, arXiv.org.
    8. Iacopo Mastromatteo, 2014. "Apparent impact: the hidden cost of one-shot trades," Papers 1409.8497, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    9. F. Campigli & G. Bormetti & F. Lillo, 2022. "Measuring price impact and information content of trades in a time-varying setting," Papers 2212.12687, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    10. Tóth, Bence & Palit, Imon & Lillo, Fabrizio & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "Why is equity order flow so persistent?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 218-239.
    11. Elia Zarinelli & Michele Treccani & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "Beyond the square root: Evidence for logarithmic dependence of market impact on size and participation rate," Papers 1412.2152, arXiv.org.
    12. Damian Eduardo Taranto & Giacomo Bormetti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Fabrizio Lillo & Bence Toth, 2016. "Linear models for the impact of order flow on prices II. The Mixture Transition Distribution model," Papers 1604.07556, arXiv.org.
    13. Damian Eduardo Taranto & Giacomo Bormetti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Fabrizio Lillo & Bence Toth, 2016. "Linear models for the impact of order flow on prices I. Propagators: Transient vs. History Dependent Impact," Papers 1602.02735, arXiv.org.

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