Bayesian Vector Autoregression Forecasts of Chinese Steel Consumption
China consumed 116 million tonnes of steel in 2000, making it the largest consumer of steel in the world. China differs fundamentally from other countries at similar levels of economic development in that the secondary sector, the traditional consumer of steel products, already accounts for a significant proportion of domestic production. This suggests that little of any future growth in China's steel consumption will result from further rises in the 'steel intensity' of domestic production. Rather, growth in GDP will be the driving force behind future growth in steel consumption. This paper uses a macroeconomic Bayesian vector autoregression model to forecast steel consumption in China to 2010. This technique uses historical correlations among the variables in a system of equations and Bayesian priors on the estimated parameters, to introduce more flexibility into the forecasting process and align the models closer in nature to structural commodity market models. The forecasts suggest that steel consumption in China will rise from 116 million tonnes in 2000 to around 182 million tonnes in 2010.
Volume (Year): 1 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCEA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RCEA20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Crompton, Paul, 2000. "Future trends in Japanese steel consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 103-114, June.
- Chen, Dongling & Clements, Kenneth W. & Roberts, E. John & Weber, E. Juerg, 1991.
"Forecasting steel demand in China,"
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 196-210, September.
- D. Chen & K.W. Clements & E.J. Roberts & E.J. Weber, 1990. "Forecasting Steel Demand in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Crompton, Paul, 1999. "Forecasting steel consumption in South-East Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 111-123, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)