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Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

Author

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  • Daigo, Ichiro
  • Osako, Shun
  • Adachi, Yoshihiro
  • Matsuno, Yasunari

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Daigo, Ichiro & Osako, Shun & Adachi, Yoshihiro & Matsuno, Yasunari, 2014. "Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 35-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:82:y:2014:i:c:p:35-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.10.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tong, Lu & Geng, Yong & Mei, Yueru & Gao, Ziyan & Liu, Sijie, 2024. "Mapping the anthropogenic zinc cycle in China from 2000 to 2021: A dynamic material flow analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Yuhua Guo & Junmao Qie & Chunxia Zhang & Yuantao Yang, 2021. "Material flow analysis of zinc during the manufacturing process in integrated steel mills in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(4), pages 1009-1020, August.
    3. Pauliuk, Stefan & Kondo, Yasushi & Nakamura, Shinichiro & Nakajima, Kenichi, 2017. "Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout multiple product life cycles—Insights from the global multiregional MaTrace model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 84-93.
    4. Meylan, Grégoire & Reck, Barbara K., 2017. "The anthropogenic cycle of zinc: Status quo and perspectives," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-10.

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