Mapping the anthropogenic zinc cycle in China from 2000 to 2021: A dynamic material flow analysis

Zinc is one of strategic metals for economic advancement owing to its extensive utilization in various sectors. China is the largest zinc producer and consumer in the world and plays an important role in the global zinc supply chain. However, a clear picture of zinc metabolism, including its flows and stocks, remains unclear in China. This study investigates the anthropogenic zinc cycle within China's mainland for a period of 2000–2021 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis approach. Our results indicate that the demand for zinc ores increased from 1.86 Mt (megatons) in 2000 to 7.77 Mt in 2021, while the domestic zinc consumption increased from 1.51 Mt in 2000 to 6.39 Mt in 2021. In the use stage, galvanized zinc products dominated zinc consumption with a proportion of 62.49%, with the construction sector serving as the largest end-user with a proportion of 44.17%. However, the average zinc recycling rate was only 49.4%, primarily from new scraps collected in the manufacturing stage. In order to respond to the ambitious carbon neutrality target and rapid urbanization, the Chinese government has implemented mining restriction policies to curb domestic emissions, which induced more zinc imports. Consequently, the reliance on international trade increased from 27.57% in 2013 to 46.77% in 2021. Based upon these findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including preparing regulatory frameworks, promoting technological advancements, and applying various economic instruments. These recommendations can facilitate sustainable zinc resource management.