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Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models

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  • Nabil Alimi
  • Nabil Aflouk

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility for a panel of 58 developing countries from 1980 to 2015. Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we prove first, that terms-of-trade volatility have a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth, although the magnitude of this effect is not the same by the report to the threshold that has been identified. Second, the terms-of-trade volatility affect macroeconomic fluctuation differently depending on whether the country is a net exporter of the commodity, fuel or manufactured goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 534-551, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:26:y:2017:i:5:p:534-551
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2016.1278029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    2. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    3. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    4. Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Modelling Economic Relationships with Smooth Transition Regressions," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 131, Stockholm School of Economics.
    5. Dan Andrews & Daniel Rees, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Terms of Trade Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2024. "Output volatility and exchange rates: New evidence from the updated de facto exchange rate regime classifications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 894-908.
    2. Mansoor Mushtaq & Gulnaz Hameed & Nasir Mahmood & Muhammad Hanif, 2026. "Financial Development, Financial Globalization, and Economic Growth Volatility: A Comparative Analysis for Developing and Developed Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(1), pages 1847-1875, February.
    3. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Mariya Ahmad Qureshi & Samra Ali, 2021. "Does immiserizing growth exist? Evidence from world’s top trading nations," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 124-148, January.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
    5. Lan Khanh Chu & Huong Hoang Diep Truong & Hoang Phuong Dung, 2023. "Unveiling the influence of economic complexity and economic shocks on output growth volatility: evidence from a global sample," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 637-676, December.
    6. Tii N. Nchofoung, 2022. "Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 161-174.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "The threshold effect of oil-price shocks on economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1942-1958.
    9. Carolyn Chisadza & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Financial Development and Income Inequality: Evidence From Advanced, Emerging and Developing Economies," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-27, March.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2018. "Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Terms of Trade Volatility," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-21, October.
    11. Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.

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