IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v39y2012i6p1279-1293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling skewness and kurtosis with the BCPE density in GAMLSS

Author

Listed:
  • Vlasios Voudouris
  • Robert Gilchrist
  • Robert Rigby
  • John Sedgwick
  • Dimitrios Stasinopoulos

Abstract

This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in understanding processes characterised by data that are skewed and have heavy tails. Our particular substantive problem concerns film box-office revenues. We are able to show that traditional modelling techniques based on the Pareto--Levy--Mandelbrot distribution led to what is actually a poorly supported conclusion that these data have infinite variance. This in turn led to the dominant paradigm of the movie business that ‘nobody knows anything’ and hence that box-office revenues cannot be predicted. Using the Box--Cox power exponential distribution within the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape framework, we are able to model box-office revenues and develop probabilistic statements about revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Vlasios Voudouris & Robert Gilchrist & Robert Rigby & John Sedgwick & Dimitrios Stasinopoulos, 2012. "Modelling skewness and kurtosis with the BCPE density in GAMLSS," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 1279-1293, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:1279-1293
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.644530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2011.644530
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2011.644530?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
    2. Adrian E. Raftery, 1999. "Bayes Factors and BIC," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 27(3), pages 411-427, February.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. W. D. Walls, 2005. "Modelling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1181-1188.
    5. Youngjo Lee & John A. Nelder, 2006. "Double hierarchical generalized linear models (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 139-185, April.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421-421.
    7. W. David Walls, 1997. "Increasing returns to information: evidence from the Hong Kong movie market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 287-290.
    8. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    9. Michael Pokorny & John Sedgwick, 2010. "Profitability trends in Hollywood, 1929 to 1999: somebody must know something1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 63(1), pages 56-84, February.
    10. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thiago G. Ramires & Niel Hens & Gauss M. Cordeiro & Edwin M. M. Ortega, 2018. "Estimating nonlinear effects in the presence of cure fraction using a semi-parametric regression model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 709-730, June.
    2. Voudouris, Vlasios & Ayres, Robert & Serrenho, Andre Cabrera & Kiose, Daniil, 2015. "The economic growth enigma revisited: The EU-15 since the 1970s," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 812-832.
    3. Silvia L. P. Ferrari & Giovana Fumes, 2017. "Box–Cox symmetric distributions and applications to nutritional data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(3), pages 321-344, July.
    4. Fernanda De Bastiani & Robert A. Rigby & Dimitrios M. Stasinopoulous & Audrey H.M.A. Cysneiros & Miguel A. Uribe-Opazo, 2018. "Gaussian Markov random field spatial models in GAMLSS," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 168-186, January.
    5. Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios, 2015. "Flexible statistical models: Methods for the ordering and comparison of theoretical distributions," MPRA Paper 63620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Giovana Fumes-Ghantous & Silvia L. P. Ferrari & José Eduardo Corrente, 2018. "Box–Cox t random intercept model for estimating usual nutrient intake distributions," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(4), pages 715-734, December.
    7. Raúl Alejandro Morán-Vásquez & Silvia L. P. Ferrari, 2019. "Box–Cox elliptical distributions with application," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 82(5), pages 547-571, July.
    8. Ayres, Robert & Voudouris, Vlasios, 2014. "The economic growth enigma: Capital, labour and useful energy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 16-28.
    9. Naderi, Mehrdad & Hashemi, Farzane & Bekker, Andriette & Jamalizadeh, Ahad, 2020. "Modeling right-skewed financial data streams: A likelihood inference based on the generalized Birnbaum–Saunders mixture model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 376(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "Do 'African American' films perform better or worse at the box office? An empirical analysis of motion picture revenues and profits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1559-1564.
    2. W. Walls, 2010. "Superstars and heavy tails in recorded entertainment: empirical analysis of the market for DVDs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(4), pages 261-279, November.
    3. W. D. Walls & Jordi McKenzie, 2020. "Black swan models for the entertainment industry with an application to the movie business," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3019-3032, December.
    4. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "How do theatrical box office revenues affect DVD retail sales? Australian empirical evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 159-179, August.
    5. Jordi Mckenzie, 2008. "Bayesian Information Transmission and Stable Distributions: Motion Picture Revenues at the Australian Box Office," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 338-353, September.
    6. Jordi McKenzie, 2009. "Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(4), pages 279-299, November.
    7. W. D. Walls, "undated". "Modeling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Working Papers 2014-48, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 23 Sep 2014.
    8. McKenzie, Jordi, 2013. "Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 70-80.
    9. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "Movie producers and the statistical distribution of achievement," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1657-1661.
    10. Ronny Behrens & Natasha Zhang Foutz & Michael Franklin & Jannis Funk & Fernanda Gutierrez-Navratil & Julian Hofmann & Ulrike Leibfried, 2021. "Leveraging analytics to produce compelling and profitable film content," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 45(2), pages 171-211, June.
    11. Sung Ik Kim, 2022. "ARMA–GARCH model with fractional generalized hyperbolic innovations," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    12. Arthur Vany & W. Walls, 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Movie Piracy on Box-office Revenue," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 30(4), pages 291-301, June.
    13. Wen-jhan Jane & Wei-peng Chen & Yuan-lin Hsu, 2015. "The impact of deregulation on the movie box office after Taiwan’s entry into the WTO: the difference-in-differences estimation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 289-308, December.
    14. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Scorcu, Antonello E. & Vici, Laura, 2008. "Demand distribution dynamics in creative industries: The market for books in Italy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 257-268, September.
    15. Moez Hababou & Nawel Amrouche & Kamel Jedidi, 2016. "Measuring Economic Efficiency in the Motion Picture Industry: a Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 3(3), pages 144-158, December.
    16. W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
    17. Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios, 2015. "Flexible statistical models: Methods for the ordering and comparison of theoretical distributions," MPRA Paper 63620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
    19. Bao, Te & Diks, Cees & Li, Hao, 2018. "A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 611-621.
    20. Mehmet Sahiner, 2022. "Forecasting volatility in Asian financial markets: evidence from recursive and rolling window methods," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-74, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:1279-1293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.