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Unemployment, wages and pensions

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  • Patricia Peinado
  • Felipe Serrano

Abstract

Empirical evidence has shown the existence of a negative relationship between the rates of unemployment and real wages. If pensions are computed according to the wages that workers have contributed, then the unemployment rates during working life may also influence the pensions to which they are entitled. Using data from 2005 to 2012 for the Spanish social security system, we estimate that the unemployment elasticity of real pension is −0.135. A 1% increase in unemployment rate is associated with a reduction in pension equal to 0.135%. In ‘normal times’, this value could be considered modest, but the Great Recession has increased dramatically the rate of unemployment. In 2012, the rate of unemployment in Spain had increased to 25.7% and in 2015, it had diminished to 20.9%. It is estimated that unemployment rate will not be returned to figures existing before the crisis until middle of the next decade. Moreover, the current reforms in social security systems could interact with the future effects of the current rates of unemployment and cause future pensions to be significantly lower than those estimated by individuals. The economic welfare of the future cohorts of retirees would then be significantly worsened.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Peinado & Felipe Serrano, 2017. "Unemployment, wages and pensions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 670-680, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:31:y:2017:i:5:p:670-680
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1299116
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    2. Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2023. "Heterogeneity in longevity, redistribution, and pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 604-639, October.
    3. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Qi Yang, 2019. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.

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