Expectations of monetary policy in Australia implied by the probability distribution of interest rate derivatives
The paper describes and compares different methods of extracting the implied probability distribution of the underlying interest rate futures from the prices of traded options on these futures as well as from past futures prices. These methods are applied to short-term contracts on bank accepted bills trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. The information on the distribution of the underlying asset thus obtained is very important to the central bank authorities since this allows them to monitor market expectations regarding future price movements. Alternatively market reaction to central, bank monetary policy changes may be judged this way. It is also important to practitioners for use in pricing over the counter (OTC) or exotic products where the trading volume is not particularly high. In that situation, the information on the distribution recovered from highly traded products from the exchange may be used as representative for the OTC products as well. As an empirical application, the recovered information on distribution is analysed in the context of reductions in interest rates in Australia by the Reserve Bank between July 1996 and May 1997.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
- Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Peter A. Abken & Dilip B. Madan & Buddhavarapu Sailesh Ramamurtie, 1996. "Estimation of risk-neutral and statistical densities by Hermite polynomial approximation: with an application to Eurodollar futures options," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Stutzer, Michael, 1996. " A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-52, December.
- C. Steven Cole & Michael Impson & William Reichenstein, 1991. "Do treasury bill futures rates satisfy rational expectation properties?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 591-601, October.
- Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
- Xu, Xinzhong & Taylor, Stephen J., 1994. "The Term Structure of Volatility Implied by Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(01), pages 57-74, March.
- Heynen, Ronald & Kemna, Angelien & Vorst, Ton, 1994. "Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(01), pages 31-56, March.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:6:y:2000:i:2:p:113-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.