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Modelling normal returns in event studies: a model-selection approach and pilot study

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  • J. Cable
  • K. Holland

Abstract

The choice of model of normal returns in event studies has been widely discussed in the literature. While researchers frequently continue to use an array of alternatives, there is currently some tendency to favour cruder but simpler mean- or market-adjusted returns models. This paper presents a general-to-specific model selection framework for testing the data admissibility of the principal models in current use. Results from a pilot study indicate a strong preliminary preference in favour of the regression-based models, with the market model generally outperforming the capital asset pricing model.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Cable & K. Holland, 1999. "Modelling normal returns in event studies: a model-selection approach and pilot study," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 331-341.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:4:p:331-341
    DOI: 10.1080/135184799336993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    3. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    4. repec:bla:joares:v:28:y:1990:i:2:p:398-408 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kim, Dongcheol, 1995. " The Errors in the Variables Problem in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1605-1634, December.
    6. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    7. repec:bla:joares:v:22:y:1984:i:1:p:48-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. J. Andrew Coutts & Terence Mills & Jennifer Roberts, 1995. "Misspecification of the market model: the implications for event studies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 163-165.
    9. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    10. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2005. "Can a Stock Index Be Less Efficient Than Underlying Shares? An Analysis Using Malta Stock Exchange Data," MPRA Paper 84574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2004. "The Impact of the Suspension of Opening and Closing Call," Finance 0411012, EconWPA.

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    Keywords

    Abnormal Returns; Event Studies;

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