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An Empirical Analysis Of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism And Geopolitical Factors


  • Ana Bela Santos Bravo
  • Carlos Manuel Mendes Dias


This paper analyses the number of terrorist attacks and their outcomes in the period 1997-2004. We investigate the hypotheses that deprivation is the underlying cause of terrorism and that geopolitical contexts cannot be ignored. The results from econometric OLS cross-country testing of these hypotheses with data for two large regions of Eurasia seem to confirm our hypotheses, given that the determinants of terrorism differ in the two geopolitical areas and the number of terrorist incidents is negatively associated with the level of development, the literacy level and ethnic fractionalization, being positively related to mineral reserves, non-democratic political regimes and participation in international organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Bela Santos Bravo & Carlos Manuel Mendes Dias, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis Of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism And Geopolitical Factors," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 329-341.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:329-341 DOI: 10.1080/10242690500526509

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Bhattacharya, Rina & Chakravarti, Shamit, 2004. "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 403-421, June.
    2. Alberto Abadie, 2006. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 50-56, May.
    3. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Bruck, Tilman & Wickstrom, Bengt-Arne, 2004. "The economic consequences of terror: guest editors' introduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 293-300, June.
    5. Carlos Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation Of Radical Islamic Terrorism In Europe And North America: A Comparative Study," Microeconomics 0508005, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    2. Krieger, Tim & Brockhoff, Sarah & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2012. "Great Expectations and Hard Times The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62083, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Campos, Nauro F & Gassebner, Martin, 2009. "International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect," IZA Discussion Papers 4061, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.


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