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DO defence expenditures increase debt rescheduling in Turkey? probit model approach

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  • Erdal Karagol
  • Selami Sezgin

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the importance of financial and political variables in determining debt rescheduling probabilities in Turkey for 1955-2000. The problem of sovereign debt default and rescheduling has been the subject of substantial academic research during the last two decades. There has been criticism of models of developing countries' indebtedness and rescheduling that rely solely on some economic or financial predictors related to country debt, the foreign exchange sector or the domestic economic situation. Using probit analysis, this paper indicates that financial variables are important determinants of rescheduling probabilities. However, political variables are not significant in our models.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdal Karagol & Selami Sezgin, 2004. "DO defence expenditures increase debt rescheduling in Turkey? probit model approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 471-480.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:5:p:471-480
    DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000215921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Looney & P.C. Frederiksen, 1986. "Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 23(4), pages 329-337, December.
    2. J. Paul Dunne a,† & Sam Perlo-Freeman ‡ & Aylin Soydan §, 2004. "Military expenditure and debt in South America," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 173-187, April.
    3. Christos Kollias & Thanasis Maniatis, 2003. "Military expenditure and the profit rate in Greece," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 117-127.
    4. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    5. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 651-669, December.
    6. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erdal Karagol, 2005. "Defence expenditures and external debt in Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 117-125.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji'S Exploding Debt Levels?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 77-87.
    3. Zeaiter, Hussein & El-Khalil, Raed, 2016. "Extreme bounds of sovereign defaults: Evidence from the MENA region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 391-410.
    4. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    5. Zeaiter, Hussein Zeaiter, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Defaults: Evidence using Extreme bounds Analysis," Working Papers 32/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Kadir KARAGÖZ, 2018. "Impact of defence expenditures on external debt: An econometric analysis for Turkey and Turkic Republics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 183-192, Spring.
    8. Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2009. "The Defence Spending-External Debt Nexus In Ethiopia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 423-436, October.
    9. Josef Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic & Julia Wörz & Vasily Astrov, 2005. "Turkey:Macroeconomic Vulnerability,Competitiveness and the Labour Market," Working Papers 2005/5, Turkish Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Defence expenditures; External debt; Turkey; Debt rescheduling; JEL codes: H56; C25; E65; F34;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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