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'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

Author

Listed:
  • Russell Smyth
  • Ingrid Nielsen
  • Vinod Mishra

Abstract

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell Smyth & Ingrid Nielsen & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1367-1378.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:11:p:1367-1378
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601019356
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantinos Katrakilidis & George Konteos & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Chrysi Manolidou, 2017. "Investigation of Convergence in the Tourist Markets of Greece," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 707-729.
    2. Natalia Sypion-Dutkowska & Marek Dutkowski, 2021. "Impact of Tourism on Crime in the Polish Coastal Zone," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 549-570.
    3. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    6. Duha Altindag, 2014. "Crime and International Tourism," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
    7. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu, 2023. "The permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourism expenditures and receipts: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1518-1532, September.
    8. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Malaysia's Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-112, March.
    9. Abu, Nurudeen, 2025. "Long-term asymmetric impacts of insecurity and corruption on development of tourism: Evidence from Nigeria," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 34(1), pages 1-24.
    10. Jennifer C. H. MIN & Hsien-Hung KUNG & Tsangyao CHANG, 2019. "Testing the Structural Break of Taiwan Inbound Tourism Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 117-130, June.
    11. Manuela, Wilfred S. & de Vera, Manuel J., 2015. "The impact of government failure on tourism in the Philippines," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-22.
    12. Sander Van Cranenburgh & Caspar Chorus & Bert Van Wee, 2012. "Substantial Changes and Their Impact on Mobility: A Typology and an Overview of the Literature," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 569-597, June.
    13. Mishra, Ankita & Mishra, Vinod, 2018. "Is there conditional convergence in the per capita incomes of BIMAROU states in India?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 429-437.
    14. Tuck Cheong Tang & Koi Nyen Wong, 2009. "Research Note: The SARS Epidemic and International Visitor Arrivals to Cambodia: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 883-890, December.
    15. Paresh k. Narayan, 2007. "Testing Convergence Of Fiji’S Tourism Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-663, December.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2019. "How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(24), pages 2639-2653, May.
    17. Svetlana Gurieva & Irina Kuznetsova & Ekaterina Yumkina & Sergey Manichev & Elena Sidorenko, 2017. "Emotional Intelligence and Behavior Styles of Russian Middle Managers in Business Communication," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 679-693.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Arti Prasad & Biman Chand Prasad, 2010. "Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Pacific Island Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 169-183, March.
    19. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & Maria Goenechea, 2023. "Tourist arrivals and overnight stays along the Croatian Adriatic Coast: Changes in persistence and seasonality from the COVID-19 disruption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1679-1693, September.
    20. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special4:p:549-570 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    22. Ankita Mishra & Vinod Mishra, 2018. "Re-examination of convergence hypothesis among Indian states in panel stationarity testing framework with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 268-286, January.
    23. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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