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Time-varying threshold cointegration and the law of one price

Author

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  • Haesun Park
  • James Mjelde
  • David Bessler

Abstract

A theoretical model of the law of one price which allows for seasonality in transaction costs and supply and demand conditions between markets is developed. Bivariate three-regime threshold vector error correction models are applied to natural gas markets to examine seasonality in threshold levels. Results indicate that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets (Chicago is used as the base market). In the natural gas sector, dynamic threshold effects relative to the Chicago market vary depending on season, geographical location and whether the market is an excess producing or consuming market.

Suggested Citation

  • Haesun Park & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2007. "Time-varying threshold cointegration and the law of one price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1091-1105.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:9:p:1091-1105
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500486540
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Mansur & Goodwin, Barry, 2015. "Copula-Based Modeling of Dependence Structure among International Food Grain Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206059, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Machado Junior, Pedro Celso & Chung, Chanjin, 2018. "Spatial Price Transmission, Transaction Costs, and Econometric Modelling: How Inference Can Be Improved When Transaction Costs Are Observed?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274841, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Ganneval, S., 2016. "Spatial price transmission on agricultural commodity markets under different volatility regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 173-185.
    4. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:196-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mount, Timothy D. & Ju, Jaeuk, 2014. "An econometric framework for evaluating the efficiency of a market for transmission congestion contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-185.
    6. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "US Natural Gas Price Determination: Fundamentals and the Development of Shale," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    8. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1235-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mann, Janelle M., 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Machado Junior, Pedro Celso & Chung, Chanjin, 2018. "Spatial Price Transmission, Transaction Costs, and Econometric Modelling: How Inference Can Be Improved When Transaction Costs Are Observed?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273993, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Testing the international linkage in the platinum-group metal futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 339-345.
    12. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An Analysis of the Pass-Through of Exchange Rates in Tropical Forest Product Markets: A Smooth Transition Approach," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205107, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Kyle Olsen & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2015. "Price formulation and the law of one price in internationally linked markets: an examination of the natural gas markets in the USA and Canada," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 117-142, January.
    14. Guney, Selin & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "Semi-Parametric, Generalized Additive Vector Autoregressive Models of Spatial Price Dynamics," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151149, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Bekkerman, Anton & Goodwin, Barry K. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 2009. "Spatial Analysis of Market Linkages in North Carolina Using Threshold Autoregression Models with Variable Transaction Costs," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49282, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Chalmers, Neil George & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Jumbe, Charles, 2015. "Measuring the Degree of Integration on the Dairy Products Market in Malawi," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204286, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Mendonca, Gui Pedro, 2008. "Structural Breaks, Regime Change and Asymmetric Adjustment: A Short and Long Run Global Approach to the Output/Unemployment Dynamics," MPRA Paper 14648, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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