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Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?


  • Costas Karfakis


This paper examines the empirical link between the dollar exchange rate of the euro and the monetary fundamentals. The exchange rate is found to be cointegrated with money and income differentials, while the homogeneity restrictions are supported by the data. The weak form restrictions of the present-value model of the foreign exchange market are not rejected by the data, but the most stringent restrictions are strongly rejected. An estimated error-correction model explains a substantial part of the short-run exchange rate volatility and outperforms the random walk forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Karfakis, 2006. "Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 973-980.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:13:p:973-980 DOI: 10.1080/09603100600638969

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. Domenico Sartore & Lucia Trevisan & Michele Trova & Francesca Volo, 2002. "US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 480-501.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
    6. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533.
    7. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium, and Forecasting," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    2. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "Does the US international debt affect the euro/dollar exchange rate?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_06, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    3. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "What determines the forward exchange rate of the euro?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 127-131.

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