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The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt: The Euro-area case

Author

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  • Radu Vranceanu
  • Damien Besancenot

Abstract

This article argues that in Euro-area economies, where the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot bail out financially distressed governments, the spending multiplier is adversely affected by the amount of public debt. A regression model on a panel of 26 EU countries over the last 16 years shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is connected to a slowdown in annual growth rates of 0.28 percentage point. Furthermore, the effectiveness of fiscal spending is adversely affected by the amount of public debt; in particular, when the public debt exceeds 150% of GDP, the growth impact of the deficit might turn negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Radu Vranceanu & Damien Besancenot, 2013. "The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt: The Euro-area case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 758-762, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:8:p:758-762
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.741674
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2012.741674
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    3. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    4. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    5. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Laura Jaramillo & Carlo Cottarelli, 2012. "Walking Hand in Hand; Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/137, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Caruntu Roxana Corina, 2013. "Public Debt: Structure And Characteristics Romania’S Case," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 30-35, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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