The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt : the euro area case
This paper argues that in Euro-area economies, where the ECB cannot bail-out …nancially distressed governments, the …scal multiplier is adversely a¤ected by the amount of public debt. A regression model on a panel of 26 EU countries over the period 1996-2011 shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is connected to a slowdown in annual growth rates of 0.28 percentage point. Furthermore, the e¤ectiveness of …scal spending is adversely a¤ected by the amount of public debt; for a debt-to-GDP ratio above 150% the impact on growth of the …scal stimulus turns negative.
|Date of creation:||11 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:||11 Feb 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: ESSEC Research Center, BP 105, 95021 Cergy, France|
Web page: http://www.essec.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February.
- Laura Jaramillo & Carlo Cottarelli, 2012. "Walking Hand in Hand; Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/137, International Monetary Fund.
- Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert E. Hall, 2009.
"By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?,"
NBER Working Papers
15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
- Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012.
"Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
1450, European Central Bank.
- Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-12009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sophie Magnanou)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.