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The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt : the euro area case

Author

Listed:
  • Vranceanu, Radu

    (ESSEC Business School)

  • Besancenot, Damien

    (University of Paris 13 and CEPN)

Abstract

This paper argues that in Euro-area economies, where the ECB cannot bail-out …nancially distressed governments, the …scal multiplier is adversely a¤ected by the amount of public debt. A regression model on a panel of 26 EU countries over the period 1996-2011 shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is connected to a slowdown in annual growth rates of 0.28 percentage point. Furthermore, the e¤ectiveness of …scal spending is adversely a¤ected by the amount of public debt; for a debt-to-GDP ratio above 150% the impact on growth of the …scal stimulus turns negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Vranceanu, Radu & Besancenot, Damien, 2012. "The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt : the euro area case," ESSEC Working Papers WP1209, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School, revised 11 Feb 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-12009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 2012. "Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/137, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February.
    3. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    8. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
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    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vranceanu, Radu, 2012. "The Euro sovereign debt crisis and the built-in instability of the Euro," ESSEC Working Papers WP1211, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    3. Siméon Koffi, 2019. "Nonlinear Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries [Impact non linéaire de la dette publique sur la croissance: Evidence à partir des pays de l'Afrique ," Post-Print hal-02293757, HAL.
    4. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Matheus Souza Peçanha, 2020. "Fiscal management performance and local economic development: evidence from a large emerging economy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 641-659, July.
    5. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Koffi, Siméon, 2019. "Nonlinear Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," MPRA Paper 96067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Sep 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; Euro-area; Public debt; Illiquidity; the Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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