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Wie nachhaltig sind die gesetzliche Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung finanziert?
[Is the Financing of German Health and Long-Term Care Insurance Sustainable?]

Author

Listed:
  • Friedrich Breyer

    (Universität Konstanz)

  • Normann Lorenz

    (Universität Trier)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Sollten die Ausgaben der gesetzlichen Kranken- und der sozialen Pflegeversicherung langfristig stark steigen, werden sowohl die jüngere Generation durch höhere Beiträge als auch die Älteren durch mögliche Leistungseinschränkungen belastet. Auf Grundlage einer neueren nichtparametrischen Schätzung wird eine Simulation der zukünftigen Entwicklung der Beitragssätze in den beiden Zweigen der deutschen Sozialversicherung vorgestellt. Abhängig von verschiedenen Annahmen über das künftige Wachstum des BIP pro Arbeitnehmer ergibt sich dabei ein Gesamtsozialversicherungsbeitragssatz bis 2040 von nahe 50 %. Damit ist die Tragfähigkeit des deutschen Sozialversicherungssystems stark gefährdet.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2020. "Wie nachhaltig sind die gesetzliche Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung finanziert? [Is the Financing of German Health and Long-Term Care Insurance Sustainable?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(8), pages 591-596, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:8:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2716-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2716-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Normann Lorenz & Peter Ihle & Friedrich Breyer, 2020. "Aging and Health Care Expenditures: A Non-Parametric Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8216, CESifo.
    2. Victor R. Fuchs, 2018. "“Though Much Is Taken”: Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Health Economics and Policy Selected Writings by Victor Fuchs, chapter 33, pages 403-424, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    4. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    5. Friedrich Breyer & Klaus Stolte, 2001. "Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 409-424.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Fetzer & Christian Hagist, 2021. "Vorschlag zur Reform der Pflegeversicherung – Funktioniert die Soziale Marktwirtschaft noch? [A Reform Proposal for Germany’s Long - term Care Insurance–Is the Social Market Economy Still Functioni," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(2), pages 134-137, February.
    2. Thomas Neusius, 2021. "Steuerzuschuss für die Pflegeversicherung [Tax Subsidy for Long-term Care Insurance]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(11), pages 894-900, November.
    3. Bahnsen, Lewe & Wild, Frank, 2021. "Langfristige Finanzierungslasten durch kurzfristige Neuregelungen in der Pflegeversicherung," WIP-Kurzanalysen Juni 2021, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV, Köln.
    4. Bahnsen, Lewe & Wild, Frank, 2023. "Soziale Pflegeversicherung heute und morgen: Stand und mögliche Szenarien," WIP-Analysen März 2023, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV.
    5. Bahnsen, Lewe, 2022. "Womit in der Zukunft zu rechnen ist: Eine Projektion der Zahl der Pflegebedürftigen," WIP-Kurzanalysen Dezember 2022, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV, Köln.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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