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Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditures

  • Thomas Barnay


    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS)

  • Sophie Thiebault

    (INSERM - SESSTIM - Sciences économiques et sociales, systèmes de santé, sociétés - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - ORS PACA - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] - INSERM - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université)

  • Bruno Ventelou


    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3 - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université)

Context The healthy ageing assumptions may lead to substantial changes in paths of aggregate healthcare expenditures, notably catastrophic expenditures of people at the end of the life. But clear assessments of involved amounts are not available when we specifically consider ambulatory care (as drug expenditures) generally offered to chronically-ill people who can remain in this health-status for a long time onward. The Government and Social Security need tools to predict the future cost of health in particular drugs expenditures taking account epidemiological changes on future. This study estimates the evolution in reimbursable outpatient drug expenditures, attributable to age structure and chronic conditions changes, of the French population up to 2029. * Methods Matched data from both the 2004 Health and Social Protection Survey (carried out by IRDES) and from French Social Security databases were used in this study. We estimate the effects of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on French health expenditures until 2029 by applying a markovian microsimulation model from a nationally representative database. The originality of these simulations holds in using an aggregate indicator of morbidity-mortality, capturing vital risk and making it possible to adapt the quantification of life expectancies by taking into account the presence of severe chronic pathologies. Three epidemiological scenarios were constructed. * Findings We forecast future national drugs expenditures, under different epidemiological scenarios of chronic morbidity: Trend scenario, healthy ageing scenario and medical progress scenario. For the population aged 25+, results predict an increase in reimbursable drug expenditures of between 1.1% and 1.8% (annual growth rate), attributable solely to the ageing population and changes in health status. * Conclusion The small difference between the healthy ageing scenario (1.1%) and the simple continuation of trends scenario (1.4%) indicates that, contrary to expectations, reduced chronic conditions of future cohorts does not imply a large saving in terms of drug expenditures.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00809736.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00809736
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  1. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
  2. Victor R. Fuchs, 1984. ""Though Much is Taken" -- Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care," NBER Working Papers 1269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501.
  8. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
  9. Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes & Zaslavsky, Alan M., 2004. "Too much ado about two-part models and transformation?: Comparing methods of modeling Medicare expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 525-542, May.
  10. Andrew Briggs & Mark Sculpher, 1998. "An Introduction to Markov Modelling for Economic Evaluation," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 13(4), pages 397-409.
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