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Prospects for Motorization Based on Domestic Electric Vehicles: Analysis and Scenario Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • S. R. Milyakin

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • N. D. Skubachevskaya

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibilities of modernizing the automotive industry through the electrification of passenger vehicles. The benefits and risks of such modernization are analyzed, the main factors determining this transition are highlighted, and the necessary transport policy is described. Several scenarios are considered, differing in the degree of electrification development. Forecasting and analytical tools are presented for building prospects for the production of electric vehicles, the required volume of charging infrastructure and the costs for it, as well as the capacity of energy storage devices and the necessary supply of lithium raw materials. The volumes of these indicators are estimated in different scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • S. R. Milyakin & N. D. Skubachevskaya, 2024. "Prospects for Motorization Based on Domestic Electric Vehicles: Analysis and Scenario Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 91-98, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724010118
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitry V. Pelegov & Jean-Jacques Chanaron, 2022. "Electric Car Market Analysis Using Open Data: Sales, Volatility Assessment, and Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Scorrano, Mariangela & Danielis, Romeo & Giansoldati, Marco, 2020. "Dissecting the total cost of ownership of fully electric cars in Italy: The impact of annual distance travelled, home charging and urban driving," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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