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The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenza Campagnolo

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Carlo Carraro

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    Ca’Foscari University of Venice)

  • Fabio Eboli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Luca Farnia

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Ramiro Parrado

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Roberta Pierfederici

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology and main results from an overall assessment on future achievement of sustainable development goals. The proposed approach consists of a model-based, looking forward composite sustainable development index—FEEM sustainability index—projected to the future. It represents a first experiment to reproduce the future dynamics of sustainable development indicators over time and worldwide and to assess future sustainability under different scenarios. The assessment presented here is relevant under different viewpoints. First, it has a very broad nature in terms of both geographical coverage and meaningfulness: it considers the multi-dimensional structure of sustainable development by combining relevant indicators belonging to economic, social and environmental pillars for the whole world. Second, the modelling framework to compute future trends of indicators relies upon a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This is an ideal tool to look simultaneously at the development of many indicators, their potential interactions and trade-offs, and more in general to the consequences of economic development and/or policies aiming to increase performance in one or more indicators; it allows measuring the overall sustainability under alternative scenarios, across countries and over time. Finally, regarding the construction of the composite indicator, the application of fuzzy measures and Choquet integral increases substantially the model capability allowing taking into account the interactions that exist among the three main pillars of sustainability and the considered indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenza Campagnolo & Carlo Carraro & Fabio Eboli & Luca Farnia & Ramiro Parrado & Roberta Pierfederici, 2018. "The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 73-116, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:136:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1572-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1572-x
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    Cited by:

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    6. Luca Farnia, 2019. "On the Use of Spectral Value Decomposition for the Construction of Composite Indices," Working Papers 2019.08, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    8. Farnia, Luca & Cavalli, Laura & Vergalli, Sergio, 2019. "Italian Cities SDGs Composite Index: A Methodological Approach to Measure the Agenda 2030 at Urban Level," ES: Economics for Sustainability 291803, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > ES: Economics for Sustainability.
    9. Hametner, Markus & Kostetckaia, Mariia, 2020. "Frontrunners and laggards: How fast are the EU member states progressing towards the sustainable development goals?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Anita Breuer & Hannah Janetschek & Daniele Malerba, 2019. "Translating Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interdependencies into Policy Advice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, April.
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    12. Francesco Sica & Francesco Tajani & Maria Rosaria Guarini & Rossana Ranieri, 2023. "A Sensitivity Index to Perform the Territorial Sustainability in Uncertain Decision-Making Conditions," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Jari Lyytimäki & Kirsi-Marja Lonkila & Eeva Furman & Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki & Satu Lähteenoja, 2021. "Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3458-3473, March.
    14. Mehmet Pinar, 2022. "Choquet-Integral Aggregation Method to Aggregate Social Indicators to Account for Interactions: An Application to the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 1-53, January.
    15. Francesco Tajani & Maria Rosaria Guarini & Francesco Sica & Rossana Ranieri & Debora Anelli, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Analysis and Sustainable Accounting. Defining Indices of Sustainability under Choquet’s Integral," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, February.
    16. Renata Činčikaitė & Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene, 2021. "An Integrated Competitiveness Assessment of the Baltic Capitals Based on the Principles of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Aldieri, Luigi & Makkonen, Teemu & Vinci, Concetto Paolo, 2022. "Do research and development and environmental knowledge spillovers facilitate meeting sustainable development goals for resource efficiency?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Luca Farnia & Laura Cavalli & Giula Lizzi & Sergio Vergalli, 2019. "Methodological Insights to Measure the Agenda 2030 at Urban Level in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Efraim Hernández-Orozco & Ivonne Lobos-Alva & Mario Cardenas-Vélez & David Purkey & Måns Nilsson & Piedad Martin, 2022. "The application of soft systems thinking in SDG interaction studies: a comparison between SDG interactions at national and subnational levels in Colombia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8930-8964, June.
    20. Daniele Malerba, 2020. "The Trade-off Between Poverty Reduction and Carbon Emissions, and the Role of Economic Growth and Inequality: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis Using a Novel Indicator," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(2), pages 587-615, July.
    21. Durdana Qaiser Gillani & Syed Ahmad Saad Gillani & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Cristi Spulbar & Elizabeth Coker-Farrell & Abdullah Ejaz & Ramona Birau, 2021. "The Nexus between Sustainable Economic Development and Government Health Expenditure in Asian Countries Based on Ecological Footprint Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, June.

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