Identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity in the presence of outliers
Abstract The identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity is often based on sample cross-correlations between past and squared observations. In this paper we analyse the effects of outliers on these cross-correlations and, consequently, on the identification of asymmetric volatilities. We show that, as expected, one isolated big outlier biases the sample cross-correlations towards zero and hence could hide true leverage effect. Unlike, the presence of two or more big consecutive outliers could lead to detecting spurious asymmetries or asymmetries of the wrong sign. We also address the problem of robust estimation of the cross-correlations by extending some popular robust estimators of pairwise correlations and autocorrelations. Their finite sample resistance against outliers is compared through Monte Carlo experiments. Situations with isolated and patchy outliers of different sizes are examined. It is shown that a modified Ramsay-weighted estimator of the cross-correlations outperforms other estimators in identifying asymmetric conditionally heteroscedastic models. Finally, the results are illustrated with an empirical application.
Volume (Year): 7 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:Universidad del País Vasco; DFAE II; Avenida Lehendakari Aguirre, 83; 48015 Bilbao; Spain
Phone: +34 94 6013783
Fax: + 34 94 6013774
Web page: http://www.asesec.org/index.php?idioma=en
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13209|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marc Hallin & Madan Lal Puri, 1994. "Aligned rank tests for linear models with autocorrelated errors," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2045, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Bandi, Federico M. & Renò, Roberto, 2012. "Time-varying leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 94-113.
- Yu, Jun, 2012. "A semiparametric stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 473-482.
- Tim Bollerslev & Julia Litvinova & George Tauchen, 2006. "Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 353-384.
- Hibbert, Ann Marie & Daigler, Robert T. & Dupoyet, Brice, 2008. "A behavioral explanation for the negative asymmetric return-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2254-2266, October.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2007. "Effects of outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 471-497, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1999. "Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-99, September.
- Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
- Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014.
"Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Post-Print hal-01122507, HAL.
- Timo Terasvirta & Zhenfang Zhao, 2011. "Stylized facts of return series, robust estimates and three popular models of volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 67-94.
- Teräsvirta, Timo & Zhao, Zhenfang, 2007. "Stylized Facts of Return Series, Robust Estimates, and Three Popular Models of Volatility," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 662, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Aug 2007.
- María José Rodríguez & Esther Ruiz, 2012. "Revisiting Several Popular GARCH Models with Leverage Effect: Differences and Similarities," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 637-668, September.
- Céline Lévy‐Leduc & Hélène Boistard & Eric Moulines & Murad S. Taqqu & Valderio A. Reisen, 2011. "Robust estimation of the scale and of the autocovariance function of Gaussian short‐ and long‐range dependent processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 135-156, March.
- Hallin, M. & Puri, M. L., 1994. "Aligned Rank Tests for Linear Models with Autocorrelated Error Terms," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 175-237, August.
- Hallin, M. & Puri, L.M., 1992. "Aligned Rank tests for Linear Models with Autocorrelated Error Terms," Papers 9202, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
- Falk, Michael, 1998. "A Note on the Comedian for Elliptical Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 306-317, November.
- Victor GÃ³mez & Agustin Maravall & Daniel PeÃ±a, 1999. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping strategy versus outlier approach," Working Papers 9701, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-015-0131-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.