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Identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity in the presence of outliers

Listed author(s):
  • M. Angeles Carnero

    ()

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Ana Pérez

    ()

    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Esther Ruiz

    ()

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract The identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity is often based on sample cross-correlations between past and squared observations. In this paper we analyse the effects of outliers on these cross-correlations and, consequently, on the identification of asymmetric volatilities. We show that, as expected, one isolated big outlier biases the sample cross-correlations towards zero and hence could hide true leverage effect. Unlike, the presence of two or more big consecutive outliers could lead to detecting spurious asymmetries or asymmetries of the wrong sign. We also address the problem of robust estimation of the cross-correlations by extending some popular robust estimators of pairwise correlations and autocorrelations. Their finite sample resistance against outliers is compared through Monte Carlo experiments. Situations with isolated and patchy outliers of different sizes are examined. It is shown that a modified Ramsay-weighted estimator of the cross-correlations outperforms other estimators in identifying asymmetric conditionally heteroscedastic models. Finally, the results are illustrated with an empirical application.

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File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13209-015-0131-4
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Article provided by Springer & Spanish Economic Association in its journal SERIEs.

Volume (Year): 7 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 179-201

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Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-015-0131-4
DOI: 10.1007/s13209-015-0131-4
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  1. Marc Hallin & Madan Lal Puri, 1994. "Aligned rank tests for linear models with autocorrelated errors," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2045, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
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  12. María José Rodríguez & Esther Ruiz, 2012. "Revisiting Several Popular GARCH Models with Leverage Effect: Differences and Similarities," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 637-668, September.
  13. Céline Lévy‐Leduc & Hélène Boistard & Eric Moulines & Murad S. Taqqu & Valderio A. Reisen, 2011. "Robust estimation of the scale and of the autocovariance function of Gaussian short‐ and long‐range dependent processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 135-156, 03.
  14. Hallin, M. & Puri, M. L., 1994. "Aligned Rank Tests for Linear Models with Autocorrelated Error Terms," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 175-237, August.
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  16. Victor Gómez & Agustin Maravall & Daniel Peña, 1999. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping strategy versus outlier approach," Working Papers 9701, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
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