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Time-varying leverage effects

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  • Bandi, Federico M.
  • Renò, Roberto

Abstract

Vast empirical evidence points to the existence of a negative correlation, named ”leverage effect”, between shocks to variance and shocks to returns. We provide a nonparametric theory of leverage estimation in the context of a continuous-time stochastic volatility model with jumps in returns, jumps in variance, or both. Leverage is defined as a flexible function of the state of the firm, as summarized by the spot variance level. We show that its point-wise functional estimates have asymptotic properties (in terms of rates of convergence, limiting biases, and limiting variances) which crucially depend on the likelihood of the individual jumps and co-jumps as well as on the features of the jump size distributions. Empirically, we find economically important time-variation in leverage with more negative values associated with higher variance levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Bandi, Federico M. & Renò, Roberto, 2012. "Time-varying leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 94-113.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:169:y:2012:i:1:p:94-113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.01.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2017. "Chasing volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 122-145.
    2. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effects in the Returns of US Equities," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
    3. M. Angeles Carnero & Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity in the presence of outliers," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 179-201, March.
    4. Kim, Jaeho, 2015. "Bayesian Inference in a Non-linear/Non-Gaussian Switching State Space Model: Regime-dependent Leverage Effect in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 67153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bandi, F.M. & Renò, R., 2016. "Price and volatility co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 107-146.
    6. Bretó, Carles, 2014. "On idiosyncratic stochasticity of financial leverage effects," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 20-26.
    7. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Fan, Jianqing & Li, Yingying, 2013. "The leverage effect puzzle: Disentangling sources of bias at high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 224-249.
    8. Linton, Oliver & Whang, Yoon-Jae & Yen, Yu-Min, 2016. "A nonparametric test of a strong leverage hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 153-186.
    9. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:72-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data," Working Papers 13-27, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    11. Yuta Koike, 2014. "An estimator for the cumulative co-volatility of asynchronously observed semimartingales with jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 460-481, June.
    12. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00973922 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jacod, Jean & Klüppelberg, Claudia & Müller, Gernot, 2017. "Testing for non-correlation between price and volatility jumps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 284-297.
    14. Stéphane Goutte & Amine Ismail & Huyên Pham, 2017. "Regime-switching Stochastic Volatility Model : Estimation and Calibration to VIX options," Working Papers hal-01212018, HAL.
    15. Francesco Audrino & Yujia Hu, 2016. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Bahmani, Mohammad & Sheikh Ahmadi, Sayed Amir & Sanginabadi, Bahram, 2013. "Return Volatility and Asymmetric News of Computer Industry stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange (TEX)," MPRA Paper 70793, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Mar 2014.
    17. Ceylan, Ozcan, 2012. "Time-Varying Volatility Asymmetry: A Conditioned HAR-RV(CJ) EGARCH-M Model," GIAM Working Papers 12-4, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.
    18. Eraker, Bjørn & Wang, Jiakou, 2015. "A non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 547-556.
    19. Massimiliano Caporin & Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci De Magistris, 2014. "Chasing Volatility. A Persistent Multiplicative Error Model With Jumps," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0186, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    20. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T., 2015. "Model-free volatility indexes in the financial literature: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-159.
    21. Vo, Minh & Cohen, Michael & Boulter, Terry, 2015. "Asymmetric risk and return: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 558-573.
    22. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effect in Financial Returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

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