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Macroeconomic effects of sugar-sweetened beverages taxation: simulations in a computable general equilibrium model for Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Larissa Barbosa Cardoso

    (Universidade Federal de Goiás
    Universidade Federal de Goiás
    Universidade Federal de Goiás)

  • Kênia Barreiro de Souza

    (Universidade Federal do Paraná
    Universidade Federal do Paraná
    Núcleo de Estudos em Desenvolvimento Urbano e Regional)

  • Flaviane Souza Santiago

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora
    Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora
    Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)

  • Auberth Henrik Venson

    (Universidade Estadual de Londrina)

  • Maria Victoria Garcia Rosa

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)

Abstract

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is increasing worldwide, especially in developing countries. Beyond the potential health outcomes of SSB taxation, its economic effects must be examined. This article aims to analyze the wide-economy impacts of SSB tax in Brazil in the short- and long-term. We used a national dynamic computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, using data from the 2015 input–output matrix released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The model evaluates the effects on macroeconomic indicators of production, employment, household consumption, prices and tax revenue from 2023 to 2032. We analyzed four scenarios, considering different levels and schemes of taxation. In the short term, we observe a decrease in SSB consumption and negative macroeconomic impacts when government spending remains unchanged. However, redirecting the tax revenue towards public health expenditure mitigates these negative effects while maintaining similar outcomes for the SSB industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Larissa Barbosa Cardoso & Kênia Barreiro de Souza & Flaviane Souza Santiago & Auberth Henrik Venson & Maria Victoria Garcia Rosa, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of sugar-sweetened beverages taxation: simulations in a computable general equilibrium model for Brazil," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1235-1255, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:59:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11135-024-02014-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-024-02014-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J Lennert Veerman & Gary Sacks & Nicole Antonopoulos & Jane Martin, 2016. "The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 202-227, Summer.
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    4. Anita Lal & Ana Maria Mantilla-Herrera & Lennert Veerman & Kathryn Backholer & Gary Sacks & Marjory Moodie & Mohammad Siahpush & Rob Carter & Anna Peeters, 2017. "Modelled health benefits of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax across different socioeconomic groups in Australia: A cost-effectiveness and equity analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Sharon S Nakhimovsky & Andrea B Feigl & Carlos Avila & Gael O’Sullivan & Elizabeth Macgregor-Skinner & Mark Spranca, 2016. "Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
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