IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v333y2023ics0277953623004975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the unintended impact of the North American free trade agreement on U.S. public health

Author

Listed:
  • Adu, Derick T.
  • Li, Wenying
  • Sawadgo, Wendiam P.M.

Abstract

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was introduced in 1994 between Canada, Mexico, and the United States to encourage trilateral trade. In 2008, an unrestricted reciprocal sugar trade agreement, was implemented between Mexico and the United States as part of NAFTA, which led to a significant decrease in the United States’ sugar price. However, critics argue that free trade agreements that reduce trade barriers on products such as sugar threaten public health. This study uses the synthetic control method to investigate the causal impact of the unrestricted sugar trade agreement on sugar consumption and diabetes prevalence in the United States. First, we show that sugar consumption in the United States increased by an average of 16% annually after the agreement was signed, corresponding to 5240g per capita. Second, we show that the crude prevalence of diabetes increased by an average of 1% annually in the United States after the agreement was signed, with an increase of 1% and 2% for men and women, respectively. This unintended consequence of NAFTA has had an estimated economic cost of $324.37 million annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Adu, Derick T. & Li, Wenying & Sawadgo, Wendiam P.M., 2023. "Estimating the unintended impact of the North American free trade agreement on U.S. public health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:333:y:2023:i:c:s0277953623004975
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953623004975
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 50-62, February.
    2. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
    3. Jon P. Nelson, 2014. "Gender Differences In Alcohol Demand: A Systematic Review Of The Role Of Prices And Taxes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1260-1280, October.
    4. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    5. Sinclair, Wilson & Countryman, Amanda M., 2019. "Not So Sweet: Economic Implications of Restricting U.S. Sugar Imports from Mexico," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 368-384, August.
    6. McNamara, Courtney, 2017. "Trade liberalization and social determinants of health: A state of the literature review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Lynn D Silver & Shu Wen Ng & Suzanne Ryan-Ibarra & Lindsey Smith Taillie & Marta Induni & Donna R Miles & Jennifer M Poti & Barry M Popkin, 2017. "Changes in prices, sales, consumer spending, and beverage consumption one year after a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Berkeley, California, US: A before-and-after study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Miljkovic, Dragan & Nganje, William & de Chastenet, Helene, 2008. "Economic factors affecting the increase in obesity in the United States: Differential response to price," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60, February.
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    10. Michele Baggio & Alberto Chong, 2020. "Free trade agreements and world obesity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 30-49, July.
    11. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    12. Barlow, Pepita & McKee, Martin & Basu, Sanjay & Stuckler, David, 2017. "Impact of the North American free trade agreement on high-fructose corn syrup supply in Canada: a natural experiment using synthetic control methods," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    14. Sharon S Nakhimovsky & Andrea B Feigl & Carlos Avila & Gael O’Sullivan & Elizabeth Macgregor-Skinner & Mark Spranca, 2016. "Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. John Cawley & David Frisvold, 2015. "The Incidence of Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: The Case of Berkeley, California," NBER Working Papers 21465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jou, Judy & Techakehakij, Win, 2012. "International application of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation in obesity reduction: Factors that may influence policy effectiveness in country-specific contexts," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 83-90.
    17. Cernat, Lucian & Gerard, Daphne & Guinea, Oscar & Isella, Lorenzo, 2018. "Consumer benefits from EU trade liberalisation: How much did we save since the Uruguay Round?," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2018-1, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    2. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    3. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Guillaume Allaire Pouliot & Zhen Xie, 2022. "Degrees of Freedom and Information Criteria for the Synthetic Control Method," Papers 2207.02943, arXiv.org.
    5. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    6. Bidisha Lahiri & Anurag Deb, 2022. "Impact of the Indian “demonetization” policy on its export performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2799-2825, June.
    7. Feng Dong & Shengnan Zhang & Jiao Zhu & Jiaojiao Sun, 2021. "The Impact of the Integrated Development of AI and Energy Industry on Regional Energy Industry: A Case of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-24, August.
    8. Barlow, Pepita, 2018. "Does trade liberalization reduce child mortality in low- and middle-income countries? A synthetic control analysis of 36 policy experiments, 1963-2005," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102664, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    10. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2020. "Ensuring Stability, Accuracy and Meaningfulness in Synthetic Control Methods: The Regularized SHAP-Distance Method," IREA Working Papers 202005, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    11. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    12. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    13. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    14. Runst, Petrik & Höhle, David, 2022. "The German eco tax and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," Papers 2010.02378, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    16. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    17. Robert Kraemer & Jonne Lehtimäki, 2024. "Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1112-1157, August.
    18. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    19. Cummins Joseph & Miller Douglas L. & Smith Brock & Simon David, 2024. "Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 67-95, January.
    20. Ryan Abman & Hisham Foad, 2022. "Border Walls and Crime: Evidence From the Secure Fence Act," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 167-197, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:333:y:2023:i:c:s0277953623004975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.