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Design flood recalculation under land surface change

Author

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  • Xiyuan Deng

    (Tianjin University)

  • Weinan Ren

    (Tianjin University)

  • Ping Feng

    (Tianjin University)

Abstract

Under the influence of land surface variation, observed flood series are no longer stationary. Therefore, conventional flood frequency analysis methods based on the independent and identically distributed hydrological time series are not authentic, and design flood, which is the core of flood control planning, obtained by conventional methods is inevitably being questioned. In this study, we selected Wangkuai reservoir and Xidayang reservoir catchments in Daqinghe watershed affected by human activities to recalculate design floods. We firstly summarized land-use change and construction of hydraulic structures in the two catchments and found that land-use had changed a lot during 1970–1980, and numerous hydraulic structures had been built which had a significant influence on land surface in both catchments. Then, we used both reconstruction of flood series based on rainfall–runoff relationship and probability distribution methods to reconstruct the annual maximum peak flow series and calculated the design flood peaks under current and past land surface. Finally, we compared the design floods by the two methods with those derived from the direct curve fitting method without taking the land surface change into account, and we found that design flood peak and volume decreased due to land surface change in Wangkuai reservoir catchment and Xidayang reservoir catchment. The results were of great significance for flood control in these two catchments.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiyuan Deng & Weinan Ren & Ping Feng, 2016. "Design flood recalculation under land surface change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1153-1169, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2016-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2016-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jianzhu Li & Qiushuang Ma & Yu Tian & Yuming Lei & Ting Zhang & Ping Feng, 2019. "Flood scaling under nonstationarity in Daqinghe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 675-696, September.
    2. Yuming Huang & Yanjie Li & Min Liu & Liang Xiao & Fuwan Gan & Jian Jiao, 2022. "Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1175-1189, March.
    3. Tranmer, Andrew W. & Marti, Clelia L. & Tonina, Daniele & Benjankar, Rohan & Weigel, Dana & Vilhena, Leticia & McGrath, Claire & Goodwin, Peter & Tiedemann, Matthew & Mckean, Jim & Imberger, Jörg, 2018. "A hierarchical modelling framework for assessing physical and biochemical characteristics of a regulated river," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 78-93.

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