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A zero-adjusted gamma model for mortgage loan loss given default

Author

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  • Tong, Edward N.C.
  • Mues, Christophe
  • Thomas, Lyn

Abstract

The Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach introduced in the Basel II Accord requires financial institutions to estimate not just the probability of default, but also the Loss Given Default (LGD), i.e., the proportion of the outstanding loan that will be lost in the event of a default. However, modelling LGD poses substantial challenges. One of the key problems in building regression models for estimating the loan-level LGD in retail portfolios such as mortgage loans relates to the difficulty of modelling their distributions, as they typically contain extensive numbers of zeroes. In this paper, an alternative approach is proposed where a mixed discrete-continuous model for the total loss amount incurred on a defaulted loan is developed. The model accommodates the probability of a zero loss and the loss amount given that a loss occurs simultaneously. The approach is applied to a large dataset of defaulted home mortgages from a UK bank and compared to two well-known industry approaches. Our zero-adjusted gamma model is shown to present an alternative and competitive approach to LGD modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Tong, Edward N.C. & Mues, Christophe & Thomas, Lyn, 2013. "A zero-adjusted gamma model for mortgage loan loss given default," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 548-562.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:548-562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.03.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabio Sigrist & Werner A. Stahel, 2010. "Using The Censored Gamma Distribution for Modeling Fractional Response Variables with an Application to Loss Given Default," Papers 1011.1796, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    2. Bastos, João A., 2010. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2510-2517, October.
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    4. Thomas, L.C. & Matuszyk, A. & Moore, A., 2012. "Comparing debt characteristics and LGD models for different collections policies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 196-203.
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    7. Somers, Mark & Whittaker, Joe, 2007. "Quantile regression for modelling distributions of profit and loss," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1477-1487, December.
    8. Loterman, Gert & Brown, Iain & Martens, David & Mues, Christophe & Baesens, Bart, 2012. "Benchmarking regression algorithms for loss given default modeling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 161-170.
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    11. Leow, Mindy & Mues, Christophe, 2012. "Predicting loss given default (LGD) for residential mortgage loans: A two-stage model and empirical evidence for UK bank data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 183-195.
    12. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nithi Sopitpongstorn & Param Silvapulle & Jiti Gao, 2017. "Local logit regression for recovery rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Buchholz, Matthias & Holst, Gesa & Musshoff, Oliver, 2015. "Water and irrigation policy impact assessment using business simulation games: Evidence from northern Germany," DARE Discussion Papers 1505, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    3. Yao, Xiao & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2015. "Support vector regression for loss given default modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 528-538.
    4. repec:eee:ejores:v:263:y:2017:i:2:p:679-689 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:04:n:s0219024917500236 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Agata M. Lozinskaia & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2016. "Discontinuity in Relative Credit Losses: Evidence from Defaults on Government-Insured Residential Mortgages," HSE Working papers WP BRP 55/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    8. Tong, Edward N.C. & Mues, Christophe & Brown, Iain & Thomas, Lyn C., 2016. "Exposure at default models with and without the credit conversion factor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(3), pages 910-920.

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