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Flood scaling under nonstationarity in Daqinghe River basin, China

Author

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  • Jianzhu Li

    (Tianjin University)

  • Qiushuang Ma

    (Tianjin University)

  • Yu Tian

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Yuming Lei

    (China Water Northeastern Investigation, Design and Research Co., Ltd.)

  • Ting Zhang

    (Tianjin University)

  • Ping Feng

    (Tianjin University)

Abstract

Flood scaling issue is usually studied under stationary conditions. However, in recent decades, climate change and anthropogenic activities have changed hydrological processes, and stationary assumption has been questioned. To test the flood scaling invariance (simple scaling or multiscaling) and analyze the influence of environmental change on flood scaling parameter, in this study, eight mesoscale sub-watersheds in Daqinghe River basin were selected as the study area, and the trend and change point of annual maximum flood peak (AMFP) series were detected, respectively. All the AMFP series had downward trend, and the change point was around 1979. Therefore, the AMFP series are nonstationary. To analyze the flood scaling issue in the Daqinghe River basin, the AMFP series were reconstructed under the environmental conditions before and after the change point, respectively. Then, flood quantiles were calculated using the reconstructed stationary series. We also used GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape) to calculate flood quantiles based on the observed nonstationary AMFP series. According to the flood quantiles calculated by the above methods, the relationship of the drainage areas of the sub-watersheds and the flood quantiles was fitted with power function. Flood quantiles of the reconstructed stationary and observed nonstationary series showed obvious flood multiscaling. The increase in rainfall depth causes the increase in flood scaling exponents with the increase in return period, and different change ratios of land use before and after change point resulted in the flood scaling exponents of reconstructed series before 1979 were smaller than those after the change point at same return period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianzhu Li & Qiushuang Ma & Yu Tian & Yuming Lei & Ting Zhang & Ping Feng, 2019. "Flood scaling under nonstationarity in Daqinghe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 675-696, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:98:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03724-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03724-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiyuan Deng & Weinan Ren & Ping Feng, 2016. "Design flood recalculation under land surface change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1153-1169, January.
    2. Hang Zeng & Ping Feng & Xin Li, 2014. "Reservoir Flood Routing Considering the Non-Stationarity of Flood Series in North China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4273-4287, September.
    3. Xiyuan Deng & Weinan Ren & Ping Feng, 2016. "Design flood recalculation under land surface change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1153-1169, January.
    4. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan, 2015. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak Series, Adopting Climate Indices and Check Dam Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5533-5550, December.
    5. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
    6. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    7. Elias Ishak & Khaled Haddad & Mohammad Zaman & Ataur Rahman, 2011. "Scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1155-1167, September.
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    1. Yanchen Zheng & Jianzhu Li & Ting Zhang & Youtong Rong & Ping Feng, 2023. "Considering flood scaling property in multi-objective calibration of the SWAT model: a case study in Zijinguan watershed, Northern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 267-292, May.

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