IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v25y2020i6d10.1007_s11027-020-09927-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options

Author

Listed:
  • Haerani Haerani

    (University of Southern Queensland
    Universitas Hasanuddin
    University of Southern Queensland)

  • Armando Apan

    (University of Southern Queensland
    University of Southern Queensland
    University of the Philippines Diliman)

  • Badri Basnet

    (University of Southern Queensland)

Abstract

Because of its negative effect on health, aflatoxin has become one of the most important mycotoxins in the world. As climate stress is one of the main triggers of aflatoxin incidence, climate change could affect its geographic distribution. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effect of climate change on the future distribution of aflatoxin in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crops in Australia. The projected distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modelled by employing the CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) model using two global climate models (GCMs), i.e. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on SRES A2 and SRES A1B climate scenarios. This study has successfully developed CLIMEX model parameters for aflatoxin and confirmed the climatic zone preference of aflatoxin incidence, as concluded by other studies. Therefore, the model parameters are applicable in all parts of the world. The projection results in Australia confirm that climate change affects the future distribution of aflatoxin, including the distribution in the current peanut-growing areas. Shifts in aflatoxin invasion areas from the tropical and subtropical climate zones of the eastern part of Australia to the temperate climate zones of the south-eastern and south-western parts of the country were projected by 2100. Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to overcome the negative impacts in the future. Options for these measures include relocation of planting areas, development of host-plant resistance, proper agricultural practices, and mitigation actions by using physical, chemical, and biological approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Haerani Haerani & Armando Apan & Badri Basnet, 2020. "The climate-induced alteration of future geographic distribution of aflatoxin in peanut crops and its adaptation options," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 1149-1175, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-020-09927-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-020-09927-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-020-09927-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-020-09927-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "Old and New," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November.
    3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, 2008. "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report," Working Papers id:1325, eSocialSciences.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    2. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Nir Y. Krakauer, 2014. "Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Miho Kamei & Alessio Mastrucci & Bas J. van Ruijven, 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.
    6. P. Harrison & R. Dunford & C. Savin & M. Rounsevell & I. Holman & A. Kebede & B. Stuch, 2015. "Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 279-292, February.
    7. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    8. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    9. Titta Majasalmi & Micky Allen & Clara Antón-Fernández & Rasmus Astrup & Ryan M. Bright, 2020. "A simple grid-based framework for simulating forest structural trajectories linked to transient forest management scenarios in Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2139-2155, October.
    10. Livia Rasche & Uwe A. Schneider & Martha Bolívar Lobato & Ruth Sos Del Diego & Tobias Stacke, 2018. "Benefits of Coordinated Water Resource System Planning in the Cauca-Magdalena River Basin," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-27, January.
    11. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    12. Arrieta, E.M. & González, A.D., 2018. "Impact of current, National Dietary Guidelines and alternative diets on greenhouse gas emissions in Argentina," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 58-66.
    13. Nair, Mahendhiran & Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2021. "Is higher economic growth possible through better institutional quality and a lower carbon footprint? Evidence from developing countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 132-145.
    14. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    15. Giovanni Litt & Mattia Bertin & Vittore Negretto & Francesco Musco, 2022. "Reinterpreting Spatial Planning Cultures to Define Local Adaptation Cultures: A Methodology from the Central Veneto Region Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-31, June.
    16. David N Wear & Jeffrey P Prestemon, 2019. "Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Nhamo, Luxon & Matchaya, Greenwell & Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles & Mpandeli, S., "undated". "Cereal production trends under climate change: impacts and adaptation strategies in Southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H049086, International Water Management Institute.
    18. Arifa Jannat & Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata & Jun Furuya, 2021. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    19. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    20. Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton, 2018. "Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 219-231, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-020-09927-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.