Climate change and rice yield in the far north of Cameroon: reciprocal effects using the vector autoregressive model

Rice is one of the most widely consumed cereals in Cameroon, and its production depends on several factors. The objective of this study is to determine the reciprocal effects of climate change and rice production in the far north of Cameroon. To achieve this, the Vector Autoregressive model was used to explore these reciprocal influences via changes in rainfall and temperature as well as the intensity of CO2 emissions per unit of rice yield in the northern zone of Cameroon. The data used are from FAOSTAT and the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal for the period 1975–2021. The results obtained are: (i) Violent increases in rainfall reduce rice yield; (ii) regulated increases in temperature during the rainy season (May to October) improve rice yield; (iii) CO2 emission intensity per unit of rice production reduces rainfall, stimulates temperature rise, and therefore reinforces climate change. We therefore recommend that rice farmers pay attention to the reciprocal effects of climate change and rice cultivation by using rice production techniques that emit less CO2 and integrating agricultural techniques that are increasingly resilient to climate change, such as climate-smart agriculture, to make rice cultivation more sustainable.