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Identifying regime changes in closed-end fund discounts

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  • J. Hughen
  • Mark Wohar

Abstract

In seeming contradiction of the efficient markets hypothesis, closed-end fund shares typically trade at discounts to their portfolio values. We find that about half of these discounts are nonstationary. Focusing only on those funds that have stationary discounts, this study applies the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a,b) methodology to test for structural breaks in the mean discounts. Virtually all have structural breaks, and our findings contradict previous studies that indicate closed-end fund discounts revert to a long-term mean value. The data indicate that closed-end fund trading strategies are more risky than they superficially appear. As structural breaks in mean discounts do not occur together, our analysis does not find support for a common factor (possibly investor sentiment) causing these breaks. Copyright Academy of Economics and Finance 2006

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  • J. Hughen & Mark Wohar, 2006. "Identifying regime changes in closed-end fund discounts," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 115-132, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:30:y:2006:i:1:p:115-132
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02834279
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1996. "Time-Varying Expected Small Firm Returns and Closed-End Fund Discounts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 845-887.
    3. Brauer, Greggory A & Chang, Eric C, 1990. "Return Seasonality in Stocks and Their Underlying Assets: Tax-Loss Selling versus Information Explanations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 255-280.
    4. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. "Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index? A Rejoinder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 809-810, June.
    5. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. "Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 795-800, June.
    6. Thompson, Rex, 1978. "The information content of discounts and premiums on closed-end fund shares," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 151-186.
    7. Gordon Gemmill & Dylan C. Thomas, 2002. "Noise Trading, Costly Arbitrage, and Asset Prices: Evidence from Closed‐end Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2571-2594, December.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Chopra, Navin, et al, 1993. "Yes, Discounts on Closed-End Funds Are a Sentiment Index," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 801-808, June.
    10. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
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