IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v14y2023i1d10.1007_s13198-022-01811-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting stock market using machine learning: best and accurate way to know future stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Dhruhi Sheth

    (Delhi Public School)

  • Manan Shah

    (Pandit Deendayal Energy University)

Abstract

Dissatisfaction is the first step of progress, this statement serves to be the base of using Artifcial Intelligence in predicting stock prices. A great deal of people dreamed of predicting stock prices faultlessly but it remained only as a dream for those visionaries at that time. The legacy of those visionaries led to the discovery of something concrete and made that dream come to reality, and due to this we can use machine learning methods in today’s era for predicting accurate stock prices. These methods have proved to be extremely beneficial and an easy way for common man to earn quick money if done appropriately. These methods still have drawbacks that are being worked upon and it confirmations immense improvement in the future unlike the prior methods of predicting stock market prices like time-series forecasting that didn’t provide results that satisfying the needs of an investor. As a result, to deal with the volatile and dynamic nature of the market, a link between stock market and Artificial Intelligence was founded that brought about wonders. The three methods that were implemented in the prediction process were Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). ANN works on neural network, SVM works using Kernel method and LSTM works using Keras LSTM. Various techniques offered by each methodology are carefully analyzed and it was found that ANN based on neural network provides best results because it considers complex, non-linear relationships and recognizes patterns. While SVM is comparatively a new method and capable of providing better results in the future and LSTM gives good results only when large dataset is given which can be considered a drawback.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhruhi Sheth & Manan Shah, 2023. "Predicting stock market using machine learning: best and accurate way to know future stock prices," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s13198-022-01811-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-022-01811-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-022-01811-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-022-01811-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooray, Arusha, 2010. "Do stock markets lead to economic growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 448-460, July.
    2. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    3. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    4. Hedayati , Amin & Hedayati , Moein & Esfandyari, Morteza, 2016. "Stock market index prediction using artificial neural network," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 21(41), pages 89-93.
    5. Dharmaraja Selvamuthu & Vineet Kumar & Abhishek Mishra, 2019. "Indian stock market prediction using artificial neural networks on tick data," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    7. Mingyue Qiu & Yu Song, 2016. "Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-11, May.
    8. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    9. Jiayu Qiu & Bin Wang & Changjun Zhou, 2020. "Forecasting stock prices with long-short term memory neural network based on attention mechanism," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Catalina Lucia COCIANU & Hakob GRIGORYAN, 2015. "An Artificial Neural Network for Data Forecasting Purposes," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(2), pages 34-45.
    11. Hakob GRIGORYAN, 2016. "A Stock Market Prediction Method Based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA)," Database Systems Journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 7(1), pages 12-21, August.
    12. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2017. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    13. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    14. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 133-152, May.
    15. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Rafael Rosillo & Javier Giner & David De la Fuente, 2014. "Stock Market Simulation Using Support Vector Machines," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 488-500, September.
    16. Xinyi Li & Yinchuan Li & Hongyang Yang & Liuqing Yang & Xiao-Yang Liu, 2019. "DP-LSTM: Differential Privacy-inspired LSTM for Stock Prediction Using Financial News," Papers 1912.10806, arXiv.org.
    17. Boopendra Seetanah & Ushad Subadar & Raja Vinesh Sannassee & Matthew Lamport & Vashisht Ajageer, 2012. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from least developed countries," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1205, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    18. Billmeier, Andreas & Massa, Isabella, 2009. "What drives stock market development in emerging markets--institutions, remittances, or natural resources?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-35, March.
    19. Han Hou & Su-Yin Cheng, 2010. "The roles of stock market in the finance-growth nexus: time series cointegration and causality evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 975-981.
    20. Yang, Rongjun & Yu, Lin & Zhao, Yuanjun & Yu, Hongxin & Xu, Guiping & Wu, Yiting & Liu, Zhengkai, 2020. "Big data analytics for financial Market volatility forecast based on support vector machine," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 452-462.
    21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riaz Ud Din & Salman Ahmed & Saddam Hussain Khan, 2024. "A Novel Decision Ensemble Framework: Customized Attention-BiLSTM and XGBoost for Speculative Stock Price Forecasting," Papers 2401.11621, arXiv.org.
    2. Chin Soon Ku & Jiale Xiong & Yen-Lin Chen & Shing Dhee Cheah & Hoong Cheng Soong & Lip Yee Por, 2023. "Improving Stock Market Predictions: An Equity Forecasting Scanner Using Long Short-Term Memory Method with Dynamic Indicators for Malaysia Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Zihan Dong & Xinyu Fan & Zhiyuan Peng, 2024. "FNSPID: A Comprehensive Financial News Dataset in Time Series," Papers 2402.06698, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    2. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2019. "The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth, Trade Openness, And Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Asean Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 461-493, June.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    4. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    5. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    6. Yeþim Helhel, 2019. "Kýrýlgan Beþli Ülkelerde Hisse Senedi Piyasasý Geliþimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Ýliþkisi," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 19-29.
    7. Abdullahil Mamun & Mohammad Hasmat Ali & Nazamul Hoque & Md Masrurul Mowla & Shahanara Basher, 2018. "The Causality between Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 212-220, May.
    8. Rudra P. Pradhan, 2018. "Development of stock market and economic growth: the G-20 evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 161-181, August.
    9. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    10. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    11. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & John H. Hall, 2014. "The dynamics of banking sector and stock market maturity and the performance of Asian economies," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 16-44, May.
    12. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
    13. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 77232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & João Dias & Jelson Serafim, 2022. "Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers REM 2022/0228, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 76493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 322-342, December.
    17. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
    18. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2017. "Stock market development and real economic activity in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1011-1038, November.
    19. Yongming Shi & Khalid Ahmed & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2021. "Determinants of stock market development and price volatility in ASEAN plus three countries: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 560-572, January.
    20. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Nair, Mahendhiran & Bennett, Sara E., 2020. "Unveiling the causal relationships among banking competition, stock and insurance market development, and economic growth in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 74-87.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s13198-022-01811-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.