IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v27y2025i5d10.1007_s10668-023-04337-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal evolution of factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions: empirical evidence from 31 Chinese provinces

Author

Listed:
  • Xixian Zheng

    (Jiangxi Agricultural University)

  • Haixia Tan

    (Yunnan Minzu University)

  • Wenmei Liao

    (Jiangxi Agricultural University)

Abstract

Reducing agricultural carbon emissions is a crucial aspect of China's overall carbon emission reduction plan. In this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal trends in agricultural carbon emissions across 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020. Subsequently, we employed a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the factors influencing provincial agricultural carbon emissions. Our findings revealed that high carbon emission areas are primarily distributed in the central and northern regions. The center of gravity of carbon emissions is located within Henan Province (112°30′–113°30′ E; 34°10′–33°40′ N) and has gradually shifted in the northwest direction. Therefore, the central, northern, and western regions should become the focal areas for agricultural carbon emission mitigation efforts. The influencing factors demonstrate spatiotemporal heterogeneity in their impacts on agricultural carbon emissions, so differentiated emission mitigation strategies should be formulated according to local conditions. The central and northern regions should prioritize the adoption of green technologies, support zero growth of chemical fertilizers and promotion of organic alternatives, and promote urbanization. Western regions should be encouraged to use less harmful fertilizers and increase mechanization levels. Nationwide, green technology innovation in agriculture should be strengthened to promote sustainable agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Xixian Zheng & Haixia Tan & Wenmei Liao, 2025. "Spatiotemporal evolution of factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions: empirical evidence from 31 Chinese provinces," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 10909-10943, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04337-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04337-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-04337-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-04337-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2007. "Measuring the value of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5287-5297, November.
    2. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    3. R. Lal, 2007. "Carbon Management in Agricultural Soils," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 303-322, February.
    4. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Investigating spatial variability of CO2 emissions in heavy industry: Evidence from a geographically weighted regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Kun Zhou & Xingqiang Zheng & Yan Long & Jin Wu & Jianqiang Li, 2022. "Environmental Regulation, Rural Residents’ Health Investment, and Agricultural Eco-Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis Based on 31 Chinese Provinces," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Lili Guo & Shuang Zhao & Yuting Song & Mengqian Tang & Houjian Li, 2022. "Green Finance, Chemical Fertilizer Use and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    8. Xiuquan Huang & Xiaocang Xu & Qingqing Wang & Lu Zhang & Xin Gao & Linhong Chen, 2019. "Assessment of Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Their Spatiotemporal Changes in China, 1997–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Zhao, Rongqin & Liu, Ying & Tian, Mengmeng & Ding, Minglei & Cao, Lianhai & Zhang, Zhanping & Chuai, Xiaowei & Xiao, Liangang & Yao, Lunguang, 2018. "Impacts of water and land resources exploitation on agricultural carbon emissions: The water-land-energy-carbon nexus," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 480-492.
    10. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    11. Kou, Gang & Yüksel, Serhat & Dinçer, Hasan, 2022. "Inventive problem-solving map of innovative carbon emission strategies for solar energy-based transportation investment projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    12. Yihui Chen & Minjie Li & Kai Su & Xiaoyong Li, 2019. "Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of the Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Fujian, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-23, August.
    13. Yong Zhu & Congjia Huo, 2022. "The Impact of Agricultural Production Efficiency on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Liu, Jiaguo & Li, Sujuan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Regional differences and driving factors analysis of carbon emission intensity from transport sector in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    15. Zhao, Jun & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "How does financial risk affect global CO2 emissions? The role of technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Ali, Qamar & Ashfaq, Muhammad, 2018. "The nexus between greenhouse gas emission, electricity production, renewable energy and agriculture in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 437-451.
    17. Wang, Xue-Chao & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Yutao & Dong, Xiaobin & Wei, Hejie & Xu, Zihan & Varbanov, Petar Sabev, 2020. "Water-Energy-Carbon Emissions nexus analysis of China: An environmental input-output model-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Eleni Zafeiriou & Ioannis Mallidis & Konstantinos Galanopoulos & Garyfallos Arabatzis, 2018. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Performance in EU Agriculture: An Empirical Study in a Non-Linear Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Deng Jie Long & Li Tang, 2021. "The impact of socio-economic institutional change on agricultural carbon dioxide emission reduction in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, May.
    20. Lili Guo & Sihang Guo & Mengqian Tang & Mengying Su & Houjian Li, 2022. "Financial Support for Agriculture, Chemical Fertilizer Use, and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Jinyun & Yang, Zhifeng & Li, Juan, 2012. "Analysis of the distribution and evolution of energy supply and demand centers of gravity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 695-706.
    22. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xidong Zhang & Juan Zhang & Chengbo Yang, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China, 2000–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Yihui Chen & Minjie Li & Kai Su & Xiaoyong Li, 2019. "Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of the Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Fujian, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Huae Dang & Yuanjie Deng & Yifeng Hai & Hang Chen & Wenjing Wang & Miao Zhang & Xingyang Liu & Can Yang & Minghong Peng & Dingdi Jize & Mei Zhang & Long He, 2025. "Integrating Geodetector and GTWR to Unveil Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in China’s Agricultural Carbon Emissions Under the Dual Carbon Goals," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-33, June.
    4. Min Zhou & Bixia Hu, 2020. "Decoupling of carbon emissions from agricultural land utilisation from economic growth in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(11), pages 510-518.
    5. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    6. Lei, Xiao & Chen, Xingru & Wang, Nan & Wu, Jiayi & Zhang, Bin, 2025. "Urbanization and low-carbon transformation in China's agriculture: An empirical investigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    7. Ziming Bai & Tianyi Wang & Jiabin Xu & Cuixia Li, 2023. "Can Agricultural Productive Services Inhibit Carbon Emissions? Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Chao Hu & Jin Fan & Jian Chen, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Drivers of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Hanjin Li & Hu Tian & Xinyu Liu & Jiansheng You, 2024. "Transitioning to low-carbon agriculture: the non-linear role of digital inclusive finance in China’s agricultural carbon emissions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Xiaogeng Niu & Meiyu Liu & Zhenxing Tian & Anguo Chen, 2022. "Research on the Impact of Agricultural Financial Support on Agricultural Carbon Compensation Rate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    12. Shixiong Song & Siyuan Zhao & Ye Zhang & Yongxi Ma, 2023. "Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Inputs in China over the Past Three Decades," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Jiaguo Liu & Hui Meng & Haonan Xu & Jihong Chen, 2025. "Economic–environmental coordination and influencing factors under dual-carbon goal: a spatial empirical evidence from China’s transport sector," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 531-569, January.
    14. Yang Qi & Mingyue Gao & Haoyu Wang & Huijie Ding & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2023. "Does Marketization Promote High-Quality Agricultural Development in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-28, June.
    15. Hongpeng Guo & Boqun Fan & Chulin Pan, 2021. "Study on Mechanisms Underlying Changes in Agricultural Carbon Emissions: A Case in Jilin Province, China, 1998–2018," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Xidong Zhang & Juan Zhang & Wenhao Fu & Ziting Pei & Bin Zhang & Mufan Zhuang, 2024. "Analysis on agricultural carbon emissions transfer of inter-provincial trade in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(11), pages 1-31, November.
    17. Quan Xiao & Yu Wang & Haojie Liao & Gang Han & Yunjie Liu, 2023. "The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity: A Study Based on China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Li, Yonglin & Zuo, Zhili & Cheng, Yue & Cheng, Jinhua & Xu, Deyi, 2023. "Towards a decoupling between regional economic growth and CO2 emissions in China's mining industry: A comprehensive decomposition framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Qiangyi Li & Xiaohui Zhang, 2024. "Effects of Agricultural Trade on Reducing Carbon Emissions under the “Dual Carbon” Target: Evidence from China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Zhao, Yuhuan & Shi, Qiaoling & li, Hao & Qian, Zhiling & Zheng, Lu & Wang, Song & He, Yizhang, 2022. "Simulating the economic and environmental effects of integrated policies in energy-carbon-water nexus of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04337-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.